Coronavirus COVID-19 Diary
Progress of a Pandemic
Part 2 – 2021 – SCIENCE & POLITICS

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Where it began ....
This is the view from the market town of Ledbury, the heart of a rural community in Herefordshire, England. The county is set between the Malvern Hills and the border with Wales. Recording facts about the pandemic as it happens from direct evidence or reliable information sources worldwide.

Background. Viruses are everywhere. Probably the earliest to be noticed and the one everyone now knows is the influenza virus. The word ‘influenza’ coming from medieval Latin meaning ‘(astrological) influence (of the stars)’ and the illness was first recorded by Hippocrates in 412 B.C.E. It is an orthomyxovirus and the form Influenza A has the potential to cause pandemics. The first viral pandemic was in 1580 C.E. The most recent were all influenza virus A. “Spanish” Flu in 1918, H2N2 strain (Asian Flu) in 1957, H3N2 strain “Hong Kong” Flu in 1967, H5N1 strain (Bird Flu) in 2005 and H1N1 strain (Swine Flu) in 2009.
The cold-weather Annual Seasonal Flu is a mild illness which has been common worldwide for many years. One influenza A(H1N1), one influenza A(H3N2), and one or two influenza B viruses (depending on the vaccine) are included in each season’s influenza vaccines.
The earliest virus to affect humanity was probably the poliovirus which is a picornavirus. It was first described in the UK in 1789. Because of widespread vaccination from the mid-1950’s onwards, polio was eliminated from the Western Hemisphere in 1994 but outbreaks have since been noted in Nigeria, Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Around 1976 a retrovirus in Congo, West Africa passed from chimpanzees to humans and has since spread everywhere. The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) attacks the body’s immune system leaving you wide open to other diseases. The illness, termed AIDS, peaked between 2005 and 2012 but to date over 36 million people have died. Another virus, a coronavirus, caused the SARS outbreak of 2002 in Guangdong Province, China but the outbreak was only classed as an epidemic. Another coronavirus caused the MERS outbreak in the Middle East in 2012.

A new coronavirus strain, SARS-Cov-2A, leading to the disease COVID-19, has appeared in China possibly contracted by humans from live animals at a market in Wuhan. Previous outbreaks, SARS and MERS came from bats, via palm civet cats and camels respectively. The virus can be de-activated by soap solution or a 70%+-alcohol sanitary handwash solution. The name comes from the corona or crown which shows up on an electron microscope.

The story continues ....

• Friday 1st January The i newspaper reports that the four UK Chief Medical Officers have agreed with the JCVI Joint Committee on Vaccinations and Immunisation  to delay second doses of the vaccine in order to get more people vaccinated as cases surge in London and the south-east of England. The MHRA Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency  has approved a twelve-week gap for the Oxford/ AZ vaccine. JCVI Chairman Professor Wei Shen Lim says that immediate urgency is for rapid and high levels of vaccine uptake. However Pfizer say they have only assessed their vaccine on a two-dose regime with doses three weeks apart.
  There are worldwide system delays caused by a shortage of “Fill and Finish  the process of filling vials with vaccine and finishing the process of packaging the medicine for distribution  ” supplies. A crucial glass vial production plant ( in ? ) is not set to be ready until after Easter. One possible answer as mentioned in the British Medical Journal is to use prefilled syringes (PFS). The UK Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, CEPI, has already signed a deal with Italian firm Stevanato Group in June for supplies of 100 million borosilicate glass vials which can hold up to two billion doses of vaccine. The VMIC Vaccines Manufacturing and Innovation Centre  in Didcot [see 16th May] is still four months away from being operational.
  The LR & MG Ledbury Reporter & Malvern Gazette  newspaper reports that Ledbury had 11 cases for week 10-16 December and 9 cases for week 17-23 December.
• 3rd January Reuters reports that the drugs regulator in India has given emergency approval for two vaccines. The Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine was trialled in India and is being manufactured here as ‘Covishield’ by the Serum Institute of India, Pune, near Mumbai.
  
  
  The other vaccine named ‘Covaxin’ has been developed by Bharat Biotech, Hyderabad, with the backing of the state-run Indian Council of Medical Research. SII is also manufacturing the Novavax vaccine under license from the American Company and naming it ‘Covavax’.
• 4th January The Johns Hopkins University Dashboard records the total number deaths from COVID-19 worldwide is heading towards the 2 million mark. Right click to view the dashboard full-size or
  
  The first person in the world to receive the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine is Brian Pinker, aged 82, at 7:30 GMT at the Churchill Hospital in Oxford.
  
  The UK JBC Joint Biosecurity Centre  announce that the UK alert level has moved to 5, the highest level.
  
  The US CDC Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  advises that, with the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, persons age 18 years and older should receive two doses at least 21 days apart. The second dose may be administered up to 4 days before the recommended date but should be given as close to the recommended interval as possible.

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  At 8pm this evening UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announces a third lockdown in England. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are also under lockdown. Right click to view the video full-size. or The speech is eight minutes long.
  
• 5th January Two interviews on BBC Hereford and Worcester Breakfast programme with Elliott Webb. Firstly a Bromyard couple with a personal story.
  
  
  Secondly a Worcestershire doctor’s reaction to people not taking the situation seriously.
  
  
  The UK ONS Office for National Statistics  reports that an average of 1.1 million people in private households in England — the equivalent of around 1 in 50 of the population — had COVID-19 between December 27th and January 2nd. It ranges from London 1 in 30, NW SE and E England 1 in 45, East Midlands 1 in 50, NE England 1 in 60, West Midlands and Yorkshire 1 in 65 and SW England 1 in 135.
  The estimated numbers of people in each vaccination group are as follows:
     1. Care Home residents and staff - 1 million
     2. Over 80s - 3.5 million
         and NHS staff - 2.5 million
     3. Over 75s - 2.2 million
     4. Over 70s - 3.3 million
         and Clinically vulnerable - 1.5 million
  This adds up to around 14 million people out of the total UK population of 67 million.
• 6th January From midnight last night the third lockdown comes into force in England. It differs from the first in that support and childcare bubbles will be allowed to stay in place. Also anyone who can’t work from home, such as factory staff, can travel to their workplace, and playgrounds and garden centres are open. Places of worship are open for prayer and services and for ceremonies such as weddings (up to 6 people) and funerals (up to 30 people) but people should only visit with their household or support bubble.
  NHS COVID-19 Vaccination Statistics England show that from 8th to 27th December vaccinations totalled 786,000 of which 524,000 were given to people over 80, from 8th to 3rd January vaccinations totalled 1,092,885 of which 654,810 were given to people over 80 and second doses have been given to 19,981 people including 6,414 over 80s. Figures for other parts of the UK have not been released.
  
  

  This is not part of the diary but it should be recorded that around lunchtime today, on the urging of President Trump at a morning rally in Washington, a large crowd of protestors marched to the US Capitol and stormed the building, gaining entry despite the presence of security forces. Police released tear gas in the rotunda. Four protesters and one police officer died during the incident. President Trump’s Twitter account was suspended for a while. World leaders condemned the violence.

• 7th January The Times newspaper reports that scientists at Swansea University are creating a skin patch that will deliver vaccines without the need for a hypodermic needle. The silicone patch incorporates microneedles and is taped in place for 24 hours to deliver the vaccine dose. It could be in production in around three years.
• 8th January With increasing COVID-19 cases, hospitalisations and deaths in the UK, the Chief Medical Officer issues theis warning.
  
  Following a Government-funded REMAP-CAP  A Randomised, Embedded, Multi-factorial, Adaptive  Platform Trial for Community-Acquired Pneumonia  clinical trial, two drugs used to treat rheumatoid arthritis, tocilizumab and sarilumab, have also been found to reduce the time coronavirus sufferers need to spend in hospital by up to 10 days. They will be administered to patients within a day of entering intensive care alongside a corticosteroid, such as dexamethasone.
  Today the Moderna vaccine has been approved for use in the UK although supplies are not expected to be available for a few weeks.
• 9th January CBS News Boston reports that over 6.6 million Americans have been vaccinated against COVID-19.
  The UK Government coronavirus website reports a total of more than 3 million COVID-19 cases and over 80,000 confirmed deaths in the UK. Over 32,000 people are at present in hospital with COVID-19 of which over 3,000 are in intensive care mechanical ventilation beds. Around 1.5 million people have received the first dose of vaccine and 20,000 have received the second dose.
• 10th January BBC Hereford and Worcester 8am. news.
  
  
  {Ed. note the ONS 2019 population estimate for Herefordshire is 192,801 of which 12,931 people are aged 80 and over.]
• Monday 11th January Seven mass vaccination centres have been opened in England set to carry out vaccinations 12 hours a day, seven days a week, [Ed. subject to supply of sufficient quantities of the vaccines].
  
• 12th January
  This map of England from the NHS shows where all the coronavirus vaccination centres will be across the country. The green dots show the seven mass vaccination sites, purple shows local vaccine centres including GP clinics and blue denotes hospital hubs. Right-click to enlarge or
  
• 14th January
  There are an increasing number of school pupils learning remotely who have no access to a laptop or tablet computer. To help them this scheme has been set up by Tim Brett, a local Business Transformation Consultant in Hereford. The local BBC TV and Radio stations are promoting the scheme and John Finch Computers in Hereford have volunteered to refurbish the machines. They securely clear data and install a new operating system and mobile broadband facility. To decide where the laptops go, the Diocese of Hereford and the Local Authority are helping to identify and prioritise the schools where the children have the greatest need. The charity is also asking for donations to allow them to purchase cables, computer mice, mobile broadband units etc. [update see 3 February]
• 15th January The Prime Minister announced today that, from 4am. GMT next Monday, the UK is tightening up its entry regulations. Travellers arriving from abroad must have a certificate for a negative coronavirus test taken no more than 72 hours before arriving in the UK. Even then they must isolate for a minimum of ten days unles they have a second test in the UK when the isolation period can be reduced to 7 days. Exceptions are transport drivers and airline staff. Flights from most South Anerican countries are suspended to avoid entry of the new Brazilian variant which might impact our hospital services. In the UK a large number of routine surgical operations have been postponed and staff diverted to COVID-19 wards.
• 18th January CBS Boston reports that the new variant coronavirus has been detected in Massachusetts in a woman returning from a visit to the UK. The first mass vaccination centre in the state has been set up in the Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. and opened today.
• 19th January The UK Spectator magazine publishes a COVID Tracker updated daily which includes this interesting graph. 111 is the medical enquiry telephone number for the NHS for use when the emergency 999 line is not appropriate.
  
  [Ed. TRIAGE is a technical medical term for the process of determining the priority of patients’ treatments by the severity of their condition or likelihood of recovery with and without treatment]
  
  This evening at 5:30pm EST (10:30pm GMT) Joe Biden and Kamala Harris attend a memorial service in Washington for the 400,000 people who have died from COVID-19 in the United States of America. The service takes place beside the reflecting pool at the Lincoln Memorial where 400 lights have been erected to reflect the lives lost. Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris will be inaugurated as President and Vice-President at noon tomorrow EST.
• 21st January The i newspaper reports that there is discussion regarding delayng the second dose of Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. The UK Government has extended the time between doses from 21 days to 12 weeks so as to give the most people partial protection. However Israel, which has the most advanced vaccination programme, in the world is reporting a first dose effectiveness of as little as 33%. Pfizer says 52% effective between jabs. The UK Chief Scientific Adviser says 89%. The policy of delaying second jabs is being called into question by the Doctors’ Association UK and a number of GP’s.
  However on the BBC ‘More or Less’ statistics programme a member of the JCVI  Joint Committee on Vaccinations and Immunisation  explained that the Pfizer figure was averaged over a period of 21 days between doses. In the first 10 days the immune system is only just getting up to speed and JCVI studies of patients between 10 and 21 days after the first jab show immunity levels of around 89% over this period. Since antibody levels only tail off slowly the expects believe the second jab can be delayed up to 12 weeks while people are well protected by the first jab.
  Two unusual locations have been opened as coronavirus vaccination centres; Salisbury Cathedral in Hampshire and the Al Abbas Islamic Centre Mosque in Balsall Heath, Birmingham.
  
  
  
• Friday 22nd January The LR&MG newspaper reports that five staff at the Ledbury Health Partnership, a joint practice of St. Katherine’s Surgery and The Market Place Surgery, in Ledbury have tested positive for coronavirus. The Partnership says that the practice remains open and their COVID-19 vaccination clinic in Ledbury will still be running as planned.
• 23rd January Two important points were made on BBC News Breakfast programme this morning. Answering viewers questions on coronavirus particles on items of shopping and what does the future hold, Dr. Chris Smith, a virologist at Cambridge University and Dr. Linda Bauld, Professor of Public Health at Edinburgh University.
  
• 26th January Johns Hopkins University Dashboard shows further milestones in the progress of the pandemic. Right click to view the dashboard full-size or
  
  And BBC News at Six adds another grim figure - these are the deaths where people had tested positive for COVID-19 within the previous 28 days.
  
  The UK deaths reached 25,000 on 28 April 2020, 50,000 on 11 November, 75,000 on 3 January 2021 and 100,000 on 26 January. The ONS reports that the figure for all deaths where COVID-19 is mentioned on the medical death certicate is greater.
• 27th January My wife, who is in Group 3 of the vaccine rollout, received this letter today (the day after the local GP surgery called to offer her vaccination). She has booked to receive the first dose of vaccine at Ledbury Community Centre. Right-click to enlarge or
  
  With it was this booklet - “COVID-19 vaccination a guide for older adults”.
• 28th January The NHS Louisa Jordan Hospital which was set up at the Scottish Exhibition Centre (SEC) in Glasgow last year is now serving as a vast vaccination centre.
  
  This is how the Government website is presenting the daily COVID-19 figures.
  
  Another vaccine candidate has finished its latest clinical trials and has proved 89.3% effective against the original coronavirus strain and 85.6% against the new variant strain. This is the Novavax vaccine. This means there are three vaccines which can be supplied from UK plants - Oxford/AZ in Wrexham, Wales, Novavax in Stockton-on-Tees, County Durham and Valneva in Livingston, West Lothian. The last two still require MHRA  Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency  approval. A reminder from 15th November of the vaccines ordered by the UK Government.
  ✓ 100 million from Oxford/AstraZeneca ‡, UK/Swedish
      60 million from Novavax ✶, US
      60 million from Valneva ✦ , US/France
      60 million from GlaxoSmithKline / Sanofi ❖, UK/French
  ✓ 40 million from Pfizer / BioNTech † , US/German
      30 million from Johnson & Johnson / Janssen ‡ , US/Belgium
        5 million from Moderna † , US
  
  ✦ inactivated whole virus   † mRNA   ‡ adenoviral vectors (genetically engineered adenovirus)   ❖ viral proteins   ✶ nanoparticles generating spike protein–specific antibodies
  
• 31st January An update of the 15 October entry showing in the right-hand column the total deaths per 100,000 population of the country. The middle column shows the total number of deaths. Data from Statista GmbH.

  Belgium	21,092	183.6
  Slovenia	3,503	167.8
  United Kingdom	105,949	158.5
  Czechnia	16,308	152.8
  Italy	88,516	146.7
  ---	---	---
  USA	439,340	133.8
  Mexico	158,536	124.2
  Spain	58,319	123.8
  Portugal	12,482	121.5
  Sweden	11,591	112.6

• 1st February All the UK daily newspapers, apart from the Financial Times, lead with the news that Captain Tom Moore [see January 15/26 2020] has been admitted to hospital with pneumonia and has tested positive for coronavirus.
  Herefordshire Council at https://understanding.herefordshire.gov.uk is issuing a series of weekly intelligence summaries as Microsoft Powerpoint slide sets. Here is the one for the end of 2020. Jan 06 COVID Intelligence Summary (.PPT)
  The South African variant of cornavirus has arrive in the UK in small numbers. For reference these are the main variants of concern:
      UK variant B.1.1.7
      South African variant B.1.351
      Brazilian variant P.1 and P.2
      Californian variant L245R (similar to UK)
  Glenmark Pharmaceuticals’ FabiFlu tablets have been approved by regulators in India for use in mild to moderate coronavirus infections. They contain the antiviral drug favipiravir [see 7 April 2020]. The company says tests have shown clinical improvement of up to 88% in COVID-19 mild to moderate cases where patients have no underlying conditions such as diabetes.
  
  
• 2nd February Captain Sir Tom Moore died today at Bedford Hospital. The flag above 10 Downing Street was lowered to half mast in his honour.
  Figures released by NIMS National Immunisation Management Service  today show that more than 10 million first dose vaccinations have been given in the UK. This is around 15% of the population. Nearly 500,000 people have received the second dose.
• 3rd February The i newspaper reports that a research study by Oxford University shows that a single dose of the Oxford/AZ vaccine reduces transmission of new coronavirus by two-thirds. It also confirmed that the single dose offers 76% protection for up to three months.
  Targeted coronavirus lateral-flow testing is being rolled out in certain areas of England in an attempt to contain the South African variant which is appearing around the country. Also a new mutant, E484K, has been found in the UK and South African variants which may render current vaccines less effective.
  BBC Hereford & Worcester this morning.
  
• Saturday 6th February Aged 74, I have my first dose coronavirus vaccination at the Ledbury Community Centre.
  
  
• 7th February The BBC Andrew Marr show interviews Professor Sarah Gilbert [see 29 December]
  
• 8th February At the Downing Street Press conference today Matt Hancock changes Government advice and says that, instead of waiting to be contacted by NHS or the GP to have the coronavirus jab, everyone over 70 who hasn’t heard should ring their local GP Surgery of call 119 to book a jab.
  He reports that the vaccination programme is going well and on target to have the first 4 cohorts vaccinated by 15 February.
  “Surge testing” is under way in 10 postcode areas where the South African variant has been found with the aim of detecting and isolating new cases of infection.
  
  Graphic courtesy of the i newspaper.
  
• 9th February The BBC Future website provides more detail on the virus and the present situation. The new coronavirus has spike proteins which are recognised by the human enzyme furin which acts like molecular scissors cutting up various human hormones and growth factors to activate them. The furin now gets to work snipping the virus proteins which hinge open to reveal a new part of the protein which has binding chemicals that attach to key molecules found in the human respiratory system. This allows the virus to get into respiratory cells and multiply. The October South African and the December Brazilian variants affect both where the furin cuts the protein and the region that the virus uses to bind to the human cells. They are more infectious because each infected cell sheds more virus particles than the original strain.
• 10th February
  The UN World Health Organisation [https://www.who.int/] issues a guidance note for use of the Oxford/AstraZeneca AZD1222 vaccine. It makes two particular points which the UK Government is publicising. Firstly longer dose intervals within the 4–12 weeks range are associated with greater vaccine efficacy and WHO recommends an interval of 8 to 12 weeks between the doses. Also Taking the totality of available evidence into account, WHO recommends the vaccine for use in persons aged 65 years and older. This second point is aimed at Germany and France whose experts have said that there is not enough evidence of efficacy in the over 65s. The WHO document is available here (PDF file).
• 11th February Voice of America news website reports that President Biden said today at a visit to the National Insitutes of Heath: My predecessor – I’ll be very blunt about it – did not do his job in getting ready for the massive challenge of vaccinating hundreds of millions. We won’t have everything fixed for a while but we’re going to fix it. He also said that the States had acquired enough vaccine to cover 300 million people out of the 328 million US population by the end of July.
  The President’s $1.9 trillion economic stimulus package which was presented to Congress on 20 January includes $20 billion for the national vaccination programme.
• 12th February The i newspaper reports that Professor Sharon Peacock, director of Covid-19 Genomics UK who have been mapping genomes of the virus and its mutations, predicts that the Kent variant, B117, being 70% more transmissable than the original strain, is expected to sweep the world. Also the Government has arranged for 4,600 hotel rooms to be available for compulsory quarantine for people entering the UK from overseas virus hotspots listed on the Government country ‘red list’. Individuals will have to pay £1,750 for their stay and take two covid-tests during the 10-day period. Another report says that tests are showing that COVID-19 deaths could be reduced by about 1 in 25 by using a drug called tocilizumab in combination with dexamethasone for patients with simple oxygen requirement.
  In the same newspaper it says that NHS England figures show that nearly 225,00 people have been waiting more than a year for hospital treatment for existing conditions. And 4.52 million people were on the waiting list for routine procedures like hip or knee replacements at the end of December 2020. NHS England did point out they had carried out more than six million planned treatments in 2020 despite diverting resources to dealing with the pandemic.
• 13th February UK Government records show that the vaccination programme has met its first target. All individuals in groups 1 to 4, that is, care home residents and staff, NHS Staff, everyone over 70 and those clinically vulnerable, have been offered the vaccine. Second doses will begin in earnest around the twelve week period from the date of the first dose. Right-click to enlarge or
  
  
• 16th February A UK Government press release says that an algorithm published by the BMJ on 20 October 2020 has been used to identify a further 1.7 million people at serious risk from COVID-19, over and above the 2.2 million who have already been advised to shield [see 21 March 2020]. The QCovid® risk-prediction model was commissioned by Professor Chris Whitty, funded by the NIHR National Institute of Health Research  and developed by the University of Oxford research labs. The Shielded Patient List now holds 4 million people and includes people between 18 and 69 who have Down’s syndrome, learning disabilities and also organ donors. A letter will go out to the additional individuals this week and they will be asked to shield to the end of March. They will all be offered vaccinations, given help with food and medical deliveries and get statutory sick pay if they are in work.
  
• 17th February First released on September 10, 2012 a videotelephony software programme for virtual meetings is now widely used in the UK for work and also to keep in touch with friends and family during lockdowns. It’s called Zoom.
  
  It has been used by the UK Prime Minister to hold virtual cabinet meetings.
  
  Our World in Data publishes a chart of vaccinations carried out worldwide. Right-click to enlarge or
  
  
• Thursday 18th February Adil Ray, Romesh Ranganathan and other stars urge ethnic minority communities to get Covid vaccine in this video campaign. The film is shown across all major commercial UK broadcasters this evening at 9:56pm.
  
  The UK Government has released figures for COVID-19 during 2020 which show that the county of Herefordshire had a relatively low number of deaths. Local Authority areas are now sub-divided and the MSOA Middle layer Super Output Areas  covering the villages of Bosbury, Colwall, Cradley and Wellington Heath had 3, the market town of Ledbury 7, nearby Bromyard and Bishop’s Frome area 9, Fownhope, Tarrington and Much Marcle area 5, the market town of Ross-on-Wye 21 and the city of Hereford 43.
• Tuesday 22nd February A momentous day. During the afternoon the Prime Minister announces, in the House of Commons, his “road map” for easing lockdown in England. The speech is 15 minutes long.
  
  Boris Johnson confirms the details in a later TV briefing. The dates are provisional.
  
  Stage 1 – March 8 at earliest
  All schools and Further Educational Colleges will re-open. People can socialise with one other person outdoors. Care home residents can see and hold hands with one nominated person provided the visitor is tested COVID-free beforehand and wears PPE.
  Stay-at-home advice replaced by Stay-local on March 29 at earliest. People can meet outdoors in groups of up to six or two households. Tennis courts, golf courses and other outdoor sports facilities can re-open. Weddings with no more than 6 guests.
  Stage 2 – April 12 at earliest
  Non-essential shops and shopping centres can re-open. Hairdressers, nail bars, gyms, swimming pools, libraries and outdoor hospitality can re-open. Campsites and holiday lets can re-open. Zoos and theme parks can re-open. Community centres and other public buildings can re-open. Care home residents can have two visitors.
  Stage 3 – May 17 at earliest
  Pubs, bars, restaurants, hotels, B&B’s, cinemas and museums can re-open. People can meet indoors in groups of up to 6. Sports venues and theatres can re-open with reduced capacity. Weddings with up to 30 people.
  Stage 4 – June 21 at earliest
  Legal limits on social mixing removed. Nightclubs can re-open. Theatres with full capacity. No limits on numbers of people at weddings and funerals.
  
  There is no hard information as to when international travel restrictions might end or whether a proof of vaccination document might be introduced. Also wearing masks and social distancing will be reviewed through the spring. The PM says that the exact dates for each stage are dependant on four tests:

  💙 that there is satisfactory progress of the vaccination programme
  💙 that evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated
  💙 that infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
  💙 that the assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new variants of the virus.

  Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will also be easing their lockdowns to individual timetables.
• 24th February The UK JBC Joint Biosecurity Centre  announce that the UK alert level has moved down to 4.
  
• 25th February Update of 24th December. How confirmed cases of COVID-19 have spread to date. Source: Johns Hopkins University, European Centre for Disease Prevention & Control. Published by BBC News.
  
  TIME magazine online reports that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has reviewed data submitted by Pfizer-BioNTech regarding the stability of their vaccine at normal freezer temperatures (-25°C to -15°C), and today issues new guidance that says the vaccine can be safely shipped and stored for up to two weeks at these relatively higher temperatures. While that’s a shorter time period than the six months that the vaccine can be stored in freezers reaching ultra-cold temperatures, the option could give more doctors’ offices, pharmacies, and health clinics the flexibility they need to effectively store and administer doses of the vaccine.
• 28th February The Guardian online shows a graph of hotspots where UK weekly COVID-19 cases have increased in the week to 23rd February. Right click to view the image full-size or
  
• 1st March The Sun newspaper reports that an individual travelled from Sao Paolo in Brazil to London Heathrow airport on 10 February on SwissAir flight LX318 and brought in the latest Brazilian P.1 strain of the virus. This variant is ‘of concern’ as it contains 20 unique mutations and it appears to be able to break through anitibodies and cause re-infection, which is what has happened in Manaus in Brazil. The individual returned home to south Gloucestershire where a second member of the household contracted the strain but both are isolating. ‘Surge testing’ is being carried out in the area today to see if the variant has spread outside the household. A third person, also testing positive for the P.1 strain, has not yet been traced.
  In a separate incident three residents of the Grampian region in Scotland flew from Brazil via Paris and London and tested positive for the P.1 variant while they were self isolating at home. Scottish health officials are now tracing other passengers on the London to Aberdeen leg of their journey but no information has been released on when the flight arrived in Scotland.
  Our postman arrived this morning in a brand new van. Like the Government slogans, the wording on the side is a rule of three, a form of words meant to be pithy and memorable. It seems to be a mobile phone app. for a new parcel service which is another example of how the pandemic is changing traditional working methods. [Ed. my favourite triads are BEANZ MEANZ HEINZ and VORSPRUNG DURCH TECHNIK]
  
  The early confidence that the Czech Republic showed last year [see video 19 March 2020] has been overshadowed by todays report at CNN online. It quotes Dr. Rastislav Madar of Ostrava medical school saying that the Governemnt made mistakes in not reinstating the mask mandate last summer, re-opening shops ahead of Christmas and not taking action when the new more transmissable variant appeared in January. The Czech government will be imposing a struct lockdown from 8 March.
  CSSE Johns Hopkins University, Center for Systems Science and Engineering  figures show that the Czech Republic has recorded over 21,000 COVID-related deaths which is a rate of 198 per 100k population, the third highest in the world after Gibraltar and Andorra.
• 2nd March Texas Governor Greg Abbott announces he is lifting the statewide mask mandate and allowing all Texas businesses to reopen at full capacity, which will start going into effect March 10. This must end. It is now time to open Texas 100 percent, he announced at an event in Lubbock. Everybody that wants to work should have that opportunity. Every business that wants to open, should be open. Removing state mandates does not end personal responsibility, Abbott cautioned. Personal vigilance to follow the safe standards is still needed to contain COVID. It’s just that now state mandates are no longer needed. The Governor’s executive order (PDF file) has more detailed information.
  The TDSHS Texas Department of State Health Services  in Austin reports today that COVID-19 vaccination is currently available only to frontline and vulnerable populations due to limited supply. 2 million people have been fully vaccinated to today out of an estimated population of around 30 million.
• 3rd March
  The Daily Mail newspaper reports that the Isle of Man is entering a 21-day ‘circuit-breaker’ lockdown from today after a surge in coronavirus cases. A ferry worker tested positive on February 18th and since then 60 new cases have been found. In 2020 the island closed its borders from March to July and was restrictions free for almost seven months of the year.
  The Government Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme is extended to 30 September 2021 but the level of grant available to employers will be reduced from 80% (up to a maximum of £2,500 per employee per month) to 70% (up to a maximum of £2,187.50 per employee per month) on 1 July. This is the cost of wages for hours not worked and from the same date employers must now also contribute 10% up to £312.50 per month. From August the grant figure reduces again to 60% up to £1,875 and the employer’s contribution rises to 20% up to £625 per month. So for hours not worked an employeee receives 80% of his wages up to a maximum £2,500 per month throughout this period.
• 4th March Today is World Obesity Day and the World Obesity Federation (World Obesity) publishes a 2021 atlas including this chart. It shows COVID-19 rates per 100,000 population plotted against percentage of the adult population with a BMI Body Mass Index  > 25 kg/m² in 2016 and includes over 160 countries. [Ed. BMI is a calculated as weight in kilograms divided by the square of height in metres. A BMI > 25 is defined as overweight, a BMI > 30 is obese.]
  
  Sources: Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center (January 1st 2021) and World Health Organization.
  The country with the most overweight population at 73% is Kuwait. And half of these people are obese.
  The NHS publishes this guide to waist measurement, the second indicator of being overweight.

  To measure your waist, find the bottom of your ribs and the top of your hips. Wrap a tape measure around your waist midway between these points. Breathe out naturally before taking the measurement.
  You need to lose weight if your waist is:
  94cm (37ins) or more for men, 80cm (31.5ins) or more for women

• 5th March At the Government briefing this afternoon Matt Hancock reported that the sixth person known to have the Manaus variant has been located in Croydon. The individual was quarantining and had supplied a home test result to the lab. but failed to correctly submit a bar-code registration. Detective work by a 40 person team ended with Test and Trace staff ringing around over 300 people. It appears that there has been no onward transmission but an area of Croydon near London is being subject to surge testing.
  The MG&LR Malvern Gazette and Ledbury Reporter  reports that four test centres are to be opened in Herefordshire at Ledbury, Leominster, Hereford and Ross-on-Wye as part of the Governments’s Asymptomatic Testing Programme being run by the County Council. Essential workers wil be offered twice-weekly rapid lateral-flow tests booking online at the Council website. Results are sent by text message or email. The Government announces schools are to be re-opened in England on Monday, again using lateral-flow tests on staff and pupils over 16. However a report by PHE Porton Down and the University of Oxford say that the accuracy of the test is around 79% when carried out by laboratory scientists, 73% when done by healthcare professionals but only 60% when using self-trained members of the public.
• 6th March The i newspaper reports that a new app. from the NHS will help patients with Long Covid. This is the unofficial name for when COVID-19 symptoms continue or re-appear around three months after the original infection. Over 600,000 people are said to be sufferers. The ‘Living with Covid’ Recovery Programme app. gives patients access to tailored advice, treatment plans and suggested exercises with a personal contact person. It was trialled at St. Bartholomew’s Hospital in London. UK Healthcare Trusts have started offering the programme providing they have healthcare staff available. The app. page looks like this.
• 9th March Two charts from The Guardian online show how hotspots have moved around since 23rd February.
  
• 10th March Texas opens up today and this how the number of cases in the state stand.
  
  
• Saturday 13th March
  The i newspaper reports that secondary school pupils, who are back at school this week, are being asked to take three lateral flow coronavirus tests at school. From next week parents have been asked to test their children twice a week. However headteachers’ leaders, member of the Association of School and College Leaders, say parents have begun to realise that it a child tests positive possibly the class and certainly the childs household will have to isolate which means parents being off work to look after the children. And parents are beginning to withdraw permission for their children to be tested. SAGE and the Labour Opposition in Parliament have both warned that this could be a problem and asked for more support for people being asked to self-isolate.
  Denmark has temporarily paused their AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine programmes for 14 days after reports of cases of blood clots forming, including one death. Norway has also paused its programme and Austria has stopped using a batch of AstraZeneca doses while investigating a death from coagulation disorders and an illness from a pulmonary embolism. Four other countries have also paused the rollout while an investigation is carried out.
  This AstraZeneca package leaflet (PDF) was given to me at my first vaccination on 6 February. There are some interesting points here.
  An update on 3 March regarding the Isle Of Man situation. The IoM Government issues a daily coronavirus dashboard update which records a total of 1,234 cases and 26 deaths up to yesterday. Looking back at the records, the island had only 377 cases and 25 deaths in total last year but the UN estimate of population is only around 85,000 people. After a second spike in infections around Christmas and New Year, a third spike is in progress with 867 cases and 1 death so far in 2021. The NHS has vaccinated 20,000 people with half having had their second dose.
• Sunday 14th March On this morning’s BBC Broadcasting House, Paddy O’Connell met modern history professor, Lord Peter Hennessey, and asked him to review the past year.
  
• 16th March An update on vaccination progress [see 17th February].
  
• 17th March The European Union countries shown in red have suspended use of the AstraZeneca vaccine is response to concerns over a number of people suffering blood clots. This has increased vaccine-hesitancy at a time when the EU is falling behind on their vaccination programme and seems to be facing a third wave of infections. Countries in yellow have suspended certain batches only. Curiously Indonesia, which has the worst infection rate in the Far East at present, has also suspended use of the AZ vaccine.
  Sky News reports that vaccinations have begun in Antarctica - the last of the world's continents to report an outbreak of COVID-19. Marcela Andrade, an official with the Chilean Antarctic Institute (INACH), told Reuters by phone that air force personnel, followed by staff at the Profesor Julio Escudero research base, were inoculated on Sunday with China’s Sinovac vaccine. Chile has inoculated most of its frontline health workers, military and elderly.
• 18th March The eagerly awaited EMA report is issued today and says that the AstraZeneva vaccine is safe and effective to use. [see the document]  France, Italy and Germany say they will restart AZ vaccinations tomorrow.
  At a French press conference, France’s Prime Minister Jean Castex shows this graph of rising infections to justify imposing a month-long lockdown. It will affect Paris and the 16 hardest hit départements in France. These are Ile de France (8), Hauts de France (5), Seine Maritime and Eure in the north and Alps Maritime on the Mediterranean coast. The lockdown will take effect from midnight tomorrow but with only be limited restrictions. Schools will stay open and people will be allowed to exercise outdoors within a 10 kilometre (6.2 miles) radius of their homes. People living in these areas will not be allowed to travel to other parts of France without a compelling reason. Jean Castex also says that he himself will be inoculated on Friday with the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine.
• 19th March UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson recieves his first dose of AstraZeneca COVID vaccine at St. Thomas’ Hospital in London where he was treated last year for COVID.
  
• 22nd March Since the UK left the European Union on 1st January 2021, the current rules of entry into France have changed. The Ministère de l’Europe et des Affaires Étrangères says today that people arriving from a country within the ‘European Space’ [a new term covering EU member states, Andorra, San Marino, Liechtenstein, Monaco, Iceland, Norway, Switxerland and the Vatican] you must present a signed, sworn declaration to the transport operator and the border control authorities confirming you have no COVID-19 symptoms, have not been in contact with possible carriers and will allow yourself to be tested if asked.
  Entry is allowed only from seven countries considered safe. Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, Japan, Israel and the United Kingdom. Visitors need to show proof of a negative PCR test carried out not less than 72 hours before entry and must self-isolate for 7 days on arrival.
  Road Hauliers and cross-border workers do not have to isolate. This is the statement (PDF) where you state ‘on your honour’ rather than on oath that the declarations made are true.
  Other regulations are for you to have a compelling reason to come to France and, for a short stay (less than 90 days), to show proof of resources and accommodation.
• 23rd March On BBC Hereford and Worcester breakfast programme, one year on Toni McDonald talks to Lynn Williams of Stourport who recovered from COVID after being put in a induced coma.
• 29th March The first easing of lockdown begins in England today. The ‘Stay at Home’ order is being lifted but people are asked to keep journeys to a minimum. Long-distance bus services are resuming with roughly half the number of seats on sale to allow for social distancing. The ‘Rule of Six’ applies again meaning up to six people or two households can meet outdoors. Weddings with up to 6 guests can take place but overnight stays are still banned. Tennis courts, golf courses and open-air exercise classes are all open.
• 4th April BBC Hereford and Worcester reports that a rave was held in a remote part of Herefordshire, Vagar Hill near Dorstone, this weekend.
  
  
  
  The Hereford Times reports that police dispersed the rave and took away music equipment. However local resident, Scott Larman, who went up to the field to tidy the site, reported that he was pleased to see that the partygoers had tidied up most of their rubbish. Other residents said that partygoers they spoke to were polite and respectful.
• 5th April The UK Prime Minister announces this afternoon that step 2 of easing lockdown will happen as planned next Monday 12th April. Non-essential shops, hairdressers and outdoor hospitality venues can reopen. Driving lessons can restart.
  
  As an aside, the briefing comes from the new press briefing room at Number 9, Downing Street. A Freedom of Information request by the Press Association found the room cost £2.6m to renovate. Mr Johnson’s spokesperson, Allegra Stratton, said it will be used for White House-style daily televised briefings for journalists.
• 7th April The first US Moderna vaccine is given this morning at a Welsh hospital to a 24-year-old carer from Llanelli. Reuters reports that the vaccine is manufactured for Moderna by Lonza biopharmaceutical company in Visp, Switzerland. Lonza is also working with Altimmune Inc., Maryland, USA, on development of a nasal COVID-19 vaccine.
  A UK Government Press Release today gives the MHRA  Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency  advice following a number of deaths from blood clots after the first dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine, which was first picked up in Europe [see 13 March]. Up to 31st March there have been 79 cases of blood clots in the brain in the UK (51 women, 21 men) and of these 19 died (13 females, 6 males).
  With 20.2 million doses of the vaccine being given up to this date the risk of this reaction is around 4 in 1 million. Their advice is to continue using the vaccine. However also today the JCVI  Joint Committee on Vaccinations and Immunisation  has issued a recommendation that healthy people under 30 who are priority cases for vaccination should be offered an alternative to the AZ vaccine. All people taking the AZ jab are being warned of the symptoms (chest or abdominal pain, persistent headache, blurred vision etc.) that indicate that they might need medical attention.
• Monday 12th April The Times of India reports that COVID-19 cases and deaths in India are increasing rapidly in five states in particular. Right-click to enlarge or
  
  The worst-affected state is Maharashtra, which includes Mumbai, shown above. Cases are reported in an earlier article as exceeding 11 lakh. Today it is over 12 lakh. Vaccination levels have passed the 10 crore mark.
  [Ed. The Indian large-number counting system divides figures up with commas in a different way to Europe and America. So 1,201,009 is written 12,01,009. A lakh is 100,000. A crore is 1,00,00,000 or 10 million - so 10 crore is 100 million jabs including both first and second dose.]
  Maharashtra state had a five-day average of 58,000 new daily cases. By comparison, in the USA, the highest daily average of cases is highest in Michigan and New York, recording just over 7000 daily average over the last week.
  India is observing a four-day vaccination festival called ‘Tika Utsav’ from 11th April, the birth anniversary of Mahatma Jyotiba Phule, to 14th April, the birth anniversary of Babasaheb Ambedkar, which aims to inoculate the maximum number of eligible people against the coronavirus.
  
  There is also the Hindu Kumbh Mela bathing festival held at four sites in different years — Prayag (Allahabad) in Uttar Pradesh; Haridwar,in Uttarakhand; Nashik in Maharashtra, and Ujjain in Madhya Pradesh. This year the festival is at Haridwar from January to April. Medical experts in India have described the festival as a potential coronavirus ‘super-spreader’ event but Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government refused to call it off, possibly fearing a backlash from religious leaders in the Hindu-majority country. An estimated 25 million people have visited the river Ganges at Haridwar to take part.
• 14th April The UK Government currently has 39 countries on a ‘Red List’. If you have been in or through any of the countries listed in the previous 10 days, you will be refused entry to the UK. If you are a British or Irish National, or you have residence rights in the UK, you will be able to enter but you must quarantine in a government approved hotel for 10 days. Bangladesh, Kenya, Pakistan and the Philippines were added to the list at 4am on Friday 9 April. The map shows the countries affected as at today.
  
  People allowed entry subject to special testing rules include aerospace engineers, aircraft pilots and crews, BBC broadcasting transmission network and services, Telecoms and Communications workers, Border security officials and contractors, Bus, Coach and Goods Vehicles drivers, Channel Tunnel system and Eurostar workers, Crown servants or government contractors, Defence personnel, Diplomatic personnel, Offshore oil and gas workers, Elite sportspersons, Medical services, Nuclear personnel, Seamen, Seasonal agricultural workers, Specialist technical workers and People in transit.
  The European Commission has said that its “Digital Green Certificate” (vaccine passport) will be up and running by June this year.
  
  Aviation Week reports that the IATA  International Air Transport Association  Digital Travel Pass App is being trialled by several airlines including Emirates Airline and Qatar Airways.
  
  The VeriFLY app is being used by American Airlines, United Airlines, Virgin Atlantic, British Airways and Lufthansa as a health passport.
  The Daily Express reports that the Danish Health Authority confirms it will no longer use the AstraZeneca vaccine due to fears over a link with very rare blood clot cases. “The Danish Health Authority has decided to continue the vaccination against Covid-19 without the vaccine from AstraZeneca.” Head of the Danish Health Authority, Soren Brostrom, said it had been a “difficult decision”. But he said Denmark had other jabs available and the country currently had the virus under control.
  The Daily Express also reports the EU Commission will not renew its deal with AstraZeneca or Johnson & Johnson (J&J) for viral vector vaccines and instead will focus on the RNA messenger vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna. And following an investigation, the US FDA  Food and Drug Administration  and CDC have recommended states should pause the use of the J&J vaccine from yesterday out of “an abundance of caution”.
• 17th April Johns Hopkins University Dashboard shows further milestones in the progress of the pandemic. Right click to view the dashboard full-size or
  
  
• 19th April The Independent daily newspaper reports that PHE  Public Health England  says 73 cases of a new coronavirus variant, B.1.617, which first emerged in India have been confirmed in England as well as four cases in Scotland. It has two “escape mutations” which may mean problems with vaccine efficacy. Dr Jeffrey Barrett, director of the COVID-19 Genomics Initiative at the Wellcome Sanger Institute says the first cases of the variant were identified late last year. India is not currently on the UK government’s red list of travel ban nations but Boris Johnson has cancelled a trade visit to Delhi planned for later this week.
  The newspaper also releases this coronavirus update.
  
  
• 26th April Now aged 75, I have my second dose coronavirus vaccination at the Ledbury Community Centre this morning. No adverse reactions to either dose.
  
  Update of 25th February. How confirmed cases of COVID-19 have spread to date. Source: Johns Hopkins University, European Centre for Disease Prevention & Control. Published by BBC News.
  
  Reports from India say that the number of deaths reported is low compared with the number of deaths of people in the streets waiting to be admitted to hospital. Both hospitals and cremation sites are being overwhelmed by the situation possibly caused by new variants arising within the huge numbers of infected people and also the mass religious gatherings, notably the Kumbh Mela, where distancing and masks precautions were not taken. There was a Jain festival on April 25th which may lead to even more cases in coming weeks. Land has been set aside for funeral pyres, a scene in New Delhi..
  
• Tuesday 27th April Birmingham Live reports that a campaign has been launched to honour heroic NHS staff and care workers who served on the Covid pandemic frontline with the award of a special medal. A petition has been set up on change.org for people to sign to show their support.
  
  The ‘Covid Star’ People’s Medal is an unofficial medal, designed by renowned sculptor Harry Gray and based on the Nightingale Star, to be given to NHS staff and care workers. The medal will be manufactured by Thomas Fattorini Ltd, based in the Birmingham Jewellery Quarter. The team behind the Medal are hoping it will be supported by Matt Hancock, the Secretary for State for Health and Social Care, so that the government can roll out the initiative nationally.
  BBC News at Six reports that the lowest age at which people are being offered a first dose of vaccine is: 42 in England, 30 in Wales, 45 in Scotland and 35 in Northern Ireland.
  The first shipment of UK aid to India arrives in Delhi today including 495 oxygen concentrators and 200 ventilators.
• 29th April BBC News reports that about 4,000 Indian Railways coaches, adapted in March 2020, are being brought back into use to to help treat Covid patients with mild to moderate symptoms.
  The facilities, which were not needed last year when strict lockdown measures saw cases decline, were able to provide an additional 64,000 temporary beds. The trains, which can be driven to stations in cities and towns where required, have beds for patients, bathrooms, power points for medical equipment and oxygen supplies.
• 1st and 2nd May As part of a government pilot scheme, a music festival is being held at Sefton Park, Liverpool. There are no masks or social distancing required at the event but attendees must be from the Liverpool area, be registered with a GP and must have a negative COVID test result the test being taken within 24 hours of entry. They must also be tested again five days afterwards.
  The Events Research Programme is a feasability study for after lockdown ends. The first phase of pilots includes:
  
  FA Cup Semi Final, Wembley Stadium
  World Snooker Championship, Sheffield Crucible Theatre
  Luna Cinema, Liverpool
  League Cup Final
  ACC Business Event, Liverpool
  Circus Nightclub, Liverpool
  FA Cup Final, Wembley Stadium
  The BRIT Awards, London
  Outdoor gig, Sefton Park Liverpool
  
  The Government has selected events based on settings that cover a range of criteria, including different audience capacities, outdoor and indoor venues and different layouts.
• 2nd May
  Devina Gupta, India Today news anchor, reporting from Delhi on the BBC Broadcasting House programme this morning.
  
• 6th May The Hereford Times reports that a COVID-19 outbreak is confirmed at a fruit farm in Herefordshire. S & A. Davies grow strawberries and have around 1000 seasonal workers living on site. Several workers in the fruit packing building have been affected but PHE Midlands reports the firm has a robust testing regime and that those testing positive and their contacts are isolating at the farm.
  The i newspaper reports that the Seychelles are experiencing a surge in COVID cases despite more than 60% of its 100,000 population being vaccinated. Of these 36% were given the Chinese Sinopharm vaccine and 24% the AstraZeneca vaccine. 500 new cases were detected in the 3 days to 1 May.
• 7th May The Government announces today the countries that are on a ‘Green List’ allowing UK residents to visit after May 17th. without the worry of quarantine restriction. However travel requires a pre-flight Covid test as well as a PCR test on day two of returning to the UK. Visiting Amber-List countries requires a mandatory 10-day quarantine at home as well as a Covid test on day two and eight and anyone returning from a Red List country will have to isolate for 10-days at a quarantine hotel, costing £1,750 per person.
• 8th May The i newspaper prints it’s regular vaccination progress image which passed a milestone yesterday — a quarter of the UK population is fully immunised against COVID. The i newspaper reports that the JCVI says Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are “preferable where available” for pregnant women as safety information relating to pregnant women is available for them.
• 10th May The UK’s four chief medical officers have agreed the COVID-19 alert level should move from level 4 to level 3, thanks to the success of the vaccination programme and social distancing restrictions.
  
  This afternoon the UK Prime Minister gives a TV briefing on BBC1 explaining the next step in the move out of lockdown.
  
  This graph presented by Professor Chris Whitty seems to sums up the position. Right click to enlarge or
  It is also mentioned that the new Indian coronavirus ‘variant of concern’, B.1.617.2, now found in 30 countries, has been shown to be more highly infectious, on a par with the earler Kent variant. Research so far shows that the current vaccines appear to be equally effective against it.
  
• 14th May Forbes reports that British Airways is the first airline in the world to conduct a trial of an ultra-rapid Covid-19 antigen test that displays results within 25 seconds. The saliva test can detect symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals with Covid-19, including variants. The total time taken is under 2 minutes.
  
  Medical tech company Canary Global is to provide the Pelican Covid-19 Ultra Rapid Covid-19 test which has recently been approved for use in Europe and UK, and is currently going through U.S. FDA approval.
  
  On the 1st of January 2021 the UK formally left the European Union (EU) creating various changes for travelling to the EU from this date, including the use of the European Health Insurance card (EHIC) whilst overseas. On the 11th January the Government announced a new agreement with the EU for a new Global Health Insurance Card (GHIC) to replace the European Health Insurance Card. Four countries, Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein and Switzerland have dropped out of the scheme. As with the EHIC, the GHIC will offer emergency healthcare protection for necessary treatment and pre-existing conditions.
• Monday 17th May The third step in easing lockdown in England takes place as described in the briefing of 10th May.
• 18th May The WHO website gives these figures for the number of deaths in each of the worst affected countries at 4:17pm Central European Summer Time today. The second column is the country population estimates for 2020 from the World Bank (given by statisticstimes.com) and the number in brackets is the number of deaths per 100,000 people.

  USA	580,468		331,002,651		[ 175 ]
  Brazil	435,751		212,559,417		[ 205 ]
  India	278,719		1,380,004,385		[   20 ]
  Mexico	220,437		128,932,753		[ 170 ]
  UK	127,684		67,886,011		[ 188 ]
  Italy	124,296		60,461,826		[ 208 ]
  Russia	116,575		145,934,462		[   79 ]
  France	107,042		65,273,511		[ 164 ]
  Germany	86,381		83,783,942		[ 103 ]
  Colombia	81,300		50,882,891		[ 159 ]
  Spain	79,432		46,754,778		[ 167 ]
  Iran	77,222		83,992,949		[   91 ]

  Worldwide the figures are over 163 million cases and over 3,386,000 deaths.
  In a world population of 7,794 million people, 1,407 million vaccine doses have been administered.
• 19th May The UK newspaper the Financial Times has been graphing the virus for some time. Here are two of today’s graphs showing the seven days rolling average of new deaths — first as raw numbers, then as per 100k of the population.
  
  The spread of the latest Variant of Concern coming from India is reported in Yahoo News UK. The main hot spot is in Bolton in Lancashire where vaccination and testing has been stepped up. But Herefordshire too has at least 8 cases. Right click to enlarge or
  
• 21st May The i newspaper reports a total 3,424 cases of the Indian variant found in Bolton up to yesterday. However people of all ages have been tested in Bolton and there has been an uptake in the number of vaccinations. But a new strain of coronavirus labelled AV.1 has been discovered in the Yorkshire and Humberside region and also in Greece and Chad. This has three key mutations and the concern is that eventually a variant may occur which is able to evade the current vaccines. However although vaccine efficacy is low with the Indian variant after the first dose it increases significantly around two weeks after the second dose.
• 28th May The i newspaper reports that the number of infections arising from the Indian variant, B.1.617.2, has doubled over the past week from 3,424 to 6.959. Government Ministers will analyse another two weeks of information before reaching a decision on 14 June about ending the lockdown a week later.
  The Express and Star shows this graph of UK hospitalisations to date.
  
  The number of cases reported for the week 21-28 May in Ledbury is 4, Hereford 5, Goodrich 3 and the rest of Herefordshire 6. In Bolton there are 1083 and Blackburn 653 cases. In both these areas testing and vacccination rates have been increased to contain the Indian (now called the Delta) variant.
• 2nd June
  The Guardian online newspaper reports that the United Nations agency, the WHO  World Health Organisation  has approved a second Chinese vaccine. It is the seventh vaccins so far to receive approval. WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a press conference on Tuesday “I’m happy to announce that the Sinovac-CoronaVac vaccine has been given WHO emergency use listing (EUL) after being found to be safe, effective, and quality-assured. The easy storage requirements of CoronaVac make it very suitable for low-resource settings.” WHO recommends the vaccine for use in adults 18 years and older, in a two-dose schedule with a spacing of two to four weeks, the agency said in a statement. It reports that “Vaccine efficacy results showed that the vaccine prevented symptomatic disease in 51 percent of those vaccinated and prevented severe COVID-19 and hospitalisation in 100 percent of the studied population.”
  
  UN News reported on 7 May that WHO had approved the Sinopharm vaccine made by the Beijing Bio-Institute of Biological Products Co Ltd for emergency use. This is also a two-dose vaccine spaced over two to four weeks. On 10 May, WHO reported an efficacy of 79 per cent against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection 14 or more days after the second dose and prevented hospitalization in 79 per cent of the studied population. Both vaccines use adenoviral vectors (genetically engineered adenovirus) like the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine and can be stored in a standard refrigerator at 2-8 degrees Celsius.
  In October, China announced it was joining ‘Covax’, the international vaccine-sharing initiative aimed at ensuring equitable global access. However this map from CGTN China Global Television Network  shows the 62 countries that were already receiving the Chinese vaccines on 1 April.
  
  
• 3rd June Portugal is transferring from the UK Green List to Amber List next Tuesday (8 June) following increasing case numbers in Portugal and rumours of a new variant in Nepal that may be more vaccine-resistant.
  
  The Guardian newspaper online notes that there is a charitable company called Freunde von GISAID e.V. (“GISAID”), which was formed in Munich in 2008, which maintains a global database for influenza virus gene sequences along with associated data, including virological, clinical, epidemiological and demographic information (if available).
• 4th June The i newspaper reports PHE  Public Health England  figures show that UK coronavirus cases are highest among teenagers with rates rising among all age groups. The highest rate is among 10 to 19-year-olds, with 72.3 cases per 100,000 in the seven days to 30 May, up week-on-week from 55.1. The second highest rate is from 20 to 29-year-olds, up from 31.5 to 52.0 which is also the age group to see the biggest week-on-week increase. COVID-19 cases rates have also increased in all the regions of England according to PHE’s latest figures.
  The newspaper also reports that research by the National Institute for Health Research/Francis Crick Institute shows that the Pfizer vaccine produces up to five times less antibodies in response to the Delta variant than it did to the original virus and earlier variants.
• 10th June The spread of the virus shown by the rolling rate per 100,000 people in the administrative areas of the UK.
  
• 10th June The i newspaper reports that a pressure group called ‘Global Justice Now’ has written to Boris Johnson urging him to act regarding vaccine patent rights. Their website says “COVID-19 vaccines have all been developed with billions of pounds in public funds and yet pharmaceutical corporations operate monopolies on their products, which means only they can make and sell them.”
  In their letter it says: “We warmly welcome the news that the Biden administration is now supportive of an intellectual property waiver to help scale up global vaccine production to produce safe and effective Covid-19 vaccines for all people, in all countries.
  We now urge you to also re-consider the UK government’’s opposition to this proposal that is supported by over 100 countries worldwide and is crucial towards ending this global pandemic and achieving worldwide immunity.”
  “Together with sharing vaccine technologies and know-how through the Covid-19 Technology Access Pool (C-TAP), this Waiver would allow more producers to get more vaccines made, and help save countless lives and livelihoods. We must learn the painful lessons from a history of unequal access in dealing with diseases such as HIV/AIDS.” The letter has more than 400 signatories including academics and public health experts.
• 13th June The number of UK new confirmed COVID cases is rising fast again
  

  Week/ending  22 May	- 16,371
  Week ending  29 May	- 20,509
  Week ending   5 June	- 30,724
  Week ending 12 June	- 46,825

  and hospitalisations are beginning to increase with 187 on the 8th June from a low of 78 on 16th May. Last year the low point was 77 admissions on 30 August. All figures from coronavirus.data.gov.uk.
• 14th June At 6pm UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson gives a Downing Street TV briefing on BBC1 explaining the next step in the move out of lockdown. Professor Chris Whitty follows the Prime Minister showing evidence supporting the decision to delay the final step. (8 minutes)
  
• 18th June The Times of India reports that the situation appears to be easing in India. Right click to show the image full-size or
  
  
• 22nd June The ONS Office for National Statistics  UK population estimate for mid-2020 is 67,081,234 of which 52,890,044 are adults of 18 or over. The vaccination programme today passed the milestone of 60% of the adult population being fully vaccinated. [Ed. The IT software used to monitor vaccinations is called NIMS - National Immunisation Management Service - and it is provided by System C & Graphnet Care Alliance, a British company.]
• 25th June The Sun newspaper publishes a front-page photograph of the Health Secretary Matt Hancock embracing an aide in his office in disregard of his own COVID rules banning close contact. The paper says the image was from 6th May. Matt Hancock apologises for breaching social distancing rules but says he will stay on as health secretary. The Guardian reports that Hancock appointed Mrs. Coladangelo, a university friend, as an unpaid adviser at the DHSC and then as a non-executive director, a part-time role paid £15,000 a year.
  
  On Instagram, Nadia Sawalha tells it like it is.
  Nadia Sawalha is a British actress appearing in EastEnders, a television panelist on Loose Ends, TV chef on ITV Nadia’s Family Feasts and vlogger on YouTube and Instagram.
  The Yorkshire Evening Post reports that people aged 18 and over will be able to “Grab a Jab” without booking an appointment this weekend, as hundreds of walk-in vaccination sites open across the country. Sites include sports venues, theatres, supermarket car parks and shopping centres. Arsenal’s Emirates Stadium and Birmingham Edgbaston cricket ground are two places chosen. The drop-in centres will be open for adults having their first vaccine dose, but people over 40 who had their jab at least eight weeks ago, and under 40s who had it at least 12 weeks ago, will also be able to drop-in for their second dose. Under-40s will be able to request Pfizer or Moderna vaccine after the UK’s medical regulator recommended they be offered an alternative to the Oxford/AstraZeneca jab.
  The i newspaper reports that Malta, the four Balearic Islands, Madeira and ten Caribbean Islands have all been added to each UK nation’s Green List, meaning travellers do not need to quarantine on arrival back into the country. But each of the Green List destinations have their own testing and quarantine rules for travellers arriving into the country.
  The NHS app. is ‘pinging’ more and more people telling them they need to isolate having been in close contact with an infected person.
  
• 26th June A cartoon appearing in The Week magazine.
  
• 27th June The Health Secretary Matt Hancock resigns and is replaced by Sajid Javid, former Chancellor of the Exchequer.
  A BBC journalist Andrew Marr contracted COVID-19, he believes, after he spent time at the international G7 summit in Carbis Bay, Cornwall on 13 June. He says “I had a bit of Covid last week despite being double-jabbed, and very nasty it was too.” In an interview with Professor Sir Peter Horby, the chairman of NERVTAG  New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group , Sir Peter said thet we know “vaccines are less effective at preventing infection. So although you were sick you were not hospitalised and there wasn’t any fatality and that is probably because of the vaccination.”
• Monday 28th June The Euro 2020 football match between England and Germany takes place at Wembley Stadium. COVID-19 rules say that fans had to show proof of full vaccination via the NHS app, with both doses received at least 14 days before the match or those not fully vaccinated show proof of a negative lateral flow test taken within the previous 48 hours. At the start of the tournament, 25,000 fans were allowed to watch at Wembley. This increased to 45,000 for the second round. The UK government announced that 60,000 fans would be admitted to Wembley for the semi-finals and final. This equals 75% of capacity.
• Monday 5th July At 5pm UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson gives a Downing Street TV briefing on BBC1 explaining the next step in the move out of lockdown.
  The panel give their personal opinions on mask-wearing.
  Sir Patrick Vallance follows the Prime Minister showing evidence showing the present position in the UK. Right click to enlarge or
  
• 6th July In terms of living with COVID-19, BBC News shows this graph of annual influenza deaths in England.
  
  Speaking in the House of Commons the new Heath Secretary, Sajid Javid, says that fully vaccinated close contacts of positive cases will not have to isolate from August 16 and people aged under 18, who are not yet eligible for vaccination, will also be able to avoid isolation if they are a close contact of a positive case from this date.
  
• 8th July A UK study programme is being reported on US news websites as showing that symptoms of COVID-19 infection are changing as the virus evolves.
  The ZOE COVID study led by Professor Tim Spector at King’s College, London is a not-for-profit initiative launched on 25 March 2020 which uses an app to log health factors, virus progress and infection symptoms. There are now over 4 million contributors globally. It has been awarded grant funding by the DHSC  UK Department of Health and Social Care  for this work.
  The symptoms of infection by the dominant Delta variant are: 1. Headache 2. Sore throat 3. Runny nose 4. Fever and 5. Persistent cough. Loss of smell is number 8 and Shortness of breath is down at number 30.
  For fully-vaccinated people, the symptoms are slightly different. 1. Headache 2. Runny nose 3. Sneezing 4. Sore throat and 5. Loss of smell. Fever is number 12 and Shortness of breath is down at number 29.
  These symptoms resemble those of the common cold so excessive sneezing (unless caused by hayfever) makes a COVID test advisable. [Ed. The NHS website has not updated its symptoms list yet.]
  The UK Transport Secretary Grant Shapps announces that, from 4am on Monday July 19, English people who have been double-jabbed at least three weeks before they travel can visit Amber-List countries without needing to self-isolate for 10 days after their return. Most of Europe is on the Amber List and 30 popular destinations have said they will accept the NHS app or letter as proof of vaccination. However a negative PCR test taken on or before day 2 of their return is still required to avoid the need to self-isolate.
  
  

  This logo, by Japanese designer Asao Tokolo, is entitled Harmonized Checkered Emblem. It features three varieties of indigo blue rectangular shapes to represent different countries, cultures and ways of thinking. Indigo blue is a traditional Japanese colour.

  Reuters News Agency reports that the Japanese Prime Minister Yishihide Suga has declared a state of emergency in Japan from July 12 through August 22. The Tokyo 2020 Olympic Organising Committee says that all Japanese spectators are now banned from the rescheduled Tokyo Olympic Games which run from July 23 through August 8. Foreign fans were banned on March 22. Everyone who has paid for tickets will be refunded.
  
  Travel advice from the FCDO UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office  for Greece says that, on arriving at the airport in Greece, vacationers from the UK must provide either:
  – a negative PCR COVID-19 test result performed 72 hours before arrival
  – a negative antigen test for CCOVID-19 from an authorised lab taken 48 hours prior to scheduled flight
  – a certificate indicating completed vaccination for Covid-19 (at least 14 days before the trip)
• 9th July The latest world figures from Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland. Right click to view the dashboard full-size or
  
  The WHO website gives these figures for the number of deaths in each of the worst affected countries at 5:29pm Central European Summer Time today. The second column is the country population estimates for 2020 from the World Bank (given by statisticstimes.com) and the number in brackets is the number of deaths per 100,000 people.

  USA	601,231		331,002,651		[ 182 ]
  Brazil	528,540		212,559,417		[ 249 ]
  India	405,939		1,380,004,385		[   29 ]
  Mexico	234,192		128,932,753		[ 182 ]
  Peru	193,743		32,971,854		[ 589 ]
  Russia	141,501		145,934,462		[   97 ]
  UK	128,336		67,886,011		[ 189 ]
  Italy	127,731		60,461,826		[ 211 ]
  Colombia	110,578		50,882,891		[ 218 ]
  France	110,341		65,273,511		[ 169 ]
  Argentina	97,439		45,195,774		[ 215 ]
  Germany	91,190		83,783,942		[ 109 ]
  Iran	85,397		83,992,949		[ 102 ]
  Spain	80,997		46,754,778		[ 173 ]

  
  I have highlighted the terrible situation in Peru where the deaths per 100,000 are twice the rate of Brazil and far more than other countries on the list. This has not been widely reported in the world news media. In Peru the J.H.U. Johns Hopkins University, Maryland, USA  estimate is that only about 10.6% of the population is fully vaccinated.
  Looking at Peru in more detail:
  9 News 6 July — Peru was the first country to report a new variant, C.37, the Lambda variant, in December 2020. The variant has seven mutations of the spike protein and now accounts for 80% of the country’s cases.
  The Independent newspaper 7 July — The more infectious Lambda variant has spread to 26 countries including the UK. The World Health Organisation has been alerted.
  ABC News 8 July — Peru has 2,678 intensive care beds for a population of 32 million.
• 12th July Update of 26th April. How confirmed cases of COVID-19 have spread to date. Source: Johns Hopkins University, European Centre for Disease Prevention & Control. Published by BBC News.
  
  The figures given in the separate earlier animations have all been revised since I put them in the diary but broadly the situation with individual countries is not changed. This is from the latest animation isuued today.
  The i newspaper reports that from 4am next Monday the Balearic Islands go back on the Government’s Amber List due to an upsurge of cases there. However at the same time changes in Government rules will allow anyone in England with two doses of the vaccine to avoid quarantine when returning from Amber List countries.
  The spread of the virus shown by the rolling rate per 100,000 people in the administrative areas of the UK updated from 10 June.
  
• 15th July India reported 41,806 new cases today. UK reported 47,891 new cases today. USA reported new 26,513 cases today.
• 16th July Silverstone Racing Circuit is opening today for the three-day Grand Prix event with a permitted number of 140,000 spectators. They must be fully vaccinated by at least 14 days before the event or have proof of a negative COVID test.
• 18th July Sajid Javid, the UK Health Secretary, confirms he has tested positive for COVID-19. He is fully vaccinated and says that the symptoms so far are mild and he is self-isolating with his family. Both the Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer were ‘pinged’ by the NHS CoVID app. and told to self-isolate for ten days.
  On this morning’s BBC Broadcasting House, Paddy O’Connell interviewed Mick Lynch, General Secretary of the RMT Union National Union of Rail, Maritime and Transport Workers .
  
  
  A news update in the same programme gave an estimated timetable.
  
• 19th July Last midnight the legal restrictions imposed by the Government to deal with cornavirus ended. Some nightclubs opened immediately with no masks or social distancing and, in some cases, no negative tests required.
  This Middlesborough couple were interviewed on local BBC News.
  Late this afternoon the Downing Street briefing included Sir Patrick Vallance and Professor Jonathan Van-Tam live and the Prime Minister self-isolating at Chequers. Sir Patrick Vallance mentioned four risks with the present situation
  1. More cases of infection will lead to more hospitalisations and deaths.
  2. Increased risk of infected people having long-term complications, so-called Long COVID.
  3. More cases of infection give the virus more opportunity to mutate and variants may occur which are able to get round the vaccines.
  4. More people will be off work with Test and Trace telling them to isolate and this will affect the UK economy. He also added that the testing regime becomes very stretched at high levels of infection.
  JVT mentioned the 3 C’s which are the Japanese government’s summary of infectious situations:
  Closed Settings with low ventilation, Crowded Settings, Close Social Contact particularly with strangers. He felt the concentration on nightclubs or other specific venues was not helpful. He said  I could create the Japanese 3 C’s by inviting a load of strangers into a garden shed and sitting around having a beer with the door shut. That would do it.
  Two other points were that the timing and level of the next peak of infections depends on public behaviour when legal restraints are removed and that an NHS Test and Trace instruction to isolate is legal, whereas a ping request for close contacts to isolate is advisory only.
• 20th July Today the daily number of reported UK cases is 46,125, the daily number of UK deaths is 96.
  On the 1st July the EU European Union  Council and Parliament passed a Digital COVID Certificate Regulation. This is the factsheet explaining the new certificate which ia valid across all 27 EU Member states. It contains a QR code with a digital signature.
  Using the ONS population estimates for mid-2020, the death rate from COVID-19 in the countries of the UK are:

  	Population	Total Deaths    to date	Deaths per 100,000 people
  England	56,550,138	113,257	200
  Scotland	5,466,000	7,813	143
  Wales	3,169,586	5,590	180
  N.Ireland	1,895,510	2,164	120
  UK	67,081,234	128,823	192

  
  J.H.U. reports around 55 countries have a death rate over 100 and around 125 have rates below 100. At 192 the UK is in the top 20 of worst-affected countries.
• 21st July On Monday the US CDC Centers for Disease Control and Prevention  moved the UK up to travel health alert level 4 telling Americans to “Avoid travel to the United Kingdom. If you must travel to United Kingdom, make sure you are fully vaccinated before travel.”
• 22nd July UK Government advice for travellers “Where possible, avoid walking around the airport and mixing with people you do not normally meet.” Which? magazine has usefully identified high-risk contamination zones at an airport: Cash machine, Passport check-in desk, Shop payment terminal, Children’s play area, Staircase rails and Security check tray area. On the plane, the high-risk areas include: Tray table, Toilet door handle, Seatbelt, Seat pocket and Seat head rest.
  Airlines say they have hospital-grade high-efficiency particulate air filtration systems (HEPA) on board which remove particulates including viruses. But Delta is one of the few airlines that leave the middle seat empty and are capping capacity at 75% (at least until 30 March 2021).
  The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control advises that medical masks (surgical or FFP2 masks), should be worn when a minimum distance of 1.5 metres from others can’t be guaranteed and recommends single-use disposable masks. And downloading the airline app before you travel means you can check in online and download your boarding pass to your phone.
• 23rd July This video is still circulating on the web since April 2020. Its significance is that Dr. Sarfaraz Munshi from the Queen’s Hospital in Romford, Essex recorded it to help his mother who was suffering from COVID. He sent it to his family and various WhatsApp groups he belongs to and it was eventually posted on YouTube.
  
  Dr. Munshi credits the advice to a senior colleague, Sue Elliott, who I believe is Deputy Director, Nursing/Safeguarding at the NHS Redbridge Clinical Commissioning Group. Though unofficial the video seems to have proved helpful for people isolating at home without access to direct medical guidance since it has been viewed around 5 million times.
  Referring to the ‘pingdemic’, the i newspaper reports that in the week from 8 to 14 July, the Test and Trace Service in England contacted 475,465 people to say they have tested positive for COVID-19 and must self-isolate, and a further 618,903 people were pinged by the NHS COVID App to say they had been close to an infected person and also needed to isolate. Although there is some overlap betwen the two figures, it suggests that more than a million people were self-isolating last week.
• 24th July Following reports of the danger of disruption of food and medical supplies due to so many people being ‘pinged’ and told to isolate, the UK Government is working on a scheme whereby key industries can submit names of fully-vaccinated key workers and have them exempted from the need to isolate if pinged provided they return a daily negative COVID test result. The list of industries and the method of having names approved is being worked out. Also today is the fourth day where the confirmed cases rate has been dropping in the UK.
  Herefordshire County libraries announce that they are reopening on Wednesday 28th July for browsing and computer bookings. For Health & Safety, Our staff will continue to wear face coverings to protect themselves and others. We encourage our customers to do the same. Please maintain a safe distance from other customers and staff. We are regularly cleaning areas and have hand sanitising stations for you to use.
• 25th July Progress of vaccinations around the world from J.H.U. shows which countries are doing well. The full chart shows that at least 70 countries have fully vaccinated less than 10% of their population. Right click to view the chart full-size or
  I received my paper NHS COVID Pass today. The pass is also available on the NHS App.
  
• 27th July The UK NHS has produced a web page with advice on how to cope with anxiety about coming out of lockdown. This is the main text (in a separate tab or window).
  
• 28th July In Australia the COVID-19 figures given by the Department of Health are a total of 33,473 cases and 921 total deaths. There are 201 people in hospital, 164 in New South Wales (incl. 56 in IC), 23 in Queensland, 7 in Victoria, 3 in Western Australia and 2 each in Northern Teritories and South Australia. J.H.U. reports only 12.9% of the population are fully vaccinated. The Australian National Cabinet’s stated pandemic policy goal is “zero community transmission,” as opposed to more general mitigation policies. Looking at individual States and Territories:
  

  	Population	Total Cases    to date	Total Deaths    to date	Cases per 100,000 people
  Queensland	5,194,879	1,790	7	<1
  Northern Territory	246,561	192	0	78
  Western Australia	2,670,241	1,051	9	39
  South Australia	1,770,790	857	4	48
  Victoria	6,661,736	20,932	820	314
  Tasmania	541,506	234	13	43
  New South Wales	8,172,505	8,294	65	101
  Capital Territory	431,484	124	3	29
  Island Territories	4,691	0	0	0
  Australia	25,694,393	33,474	921	130

  
  covidlive.co.au/states-and-territories
  The state with the highest death rate is Victoria with 12 deaths from COVID-19 per 100,000 population. The UK rate was 192 on 20 July (see above). World figures were given on 9 July (see above).
  The South Australia National Parks and Wildlife Service came up with this practical notice.
  In Tokyo, USA TODAY reports that, at the 2020 Olympic Games, 174 people have tested positive for COVID including 20 athletes out of a total of 11,708 athletes. It also reports that England is lifting quarantine requirements for travelers from the US and European countries from next Monday (2 August) provided they are fully vaccinated.
  USA TODAY has analysis of the Delta variant by scientists including Vaughn Cooper, a professor of microbiology and molecular genetics at the University of Pittsburgh. The variant has a shorter incubation period than the original virus, 4 days instead of 6 days, making people contagious sooner. It also has a mutation that produces higher viral loads in patients which makes them more likely to spread the virus when they sneeze, cough or talk. Whether the coronavirus evolves more deadly variants is totally in our hands, Cooper says. If the number of infections remains high, it’s going to continue to evolve.
• 29th July The New York Times shows where different vaccines are used around the world. Right click to view the chart and graphs below full-size or
  
  
• 30th July ‘Our World in Data’, a UK website produced by the Global Change Data Lab (https://global-change-data-lab.org/) based at Oxford, gives some idea of progress on coronavirus vaccinations worldwide.
  
  
  
• 1st August The Sun Newspaper:
  For the record these are the four current UK Chief Medical Officers.
  top Chris Whitty (England), Gregor Smith (Scotland)
  below Frank Atherton (Wales), Michael McBride (Northern Ireland)
  
• Monday 2nd August Data from BBC Coronavirus in Africa tracker
  African countries have been having problems with supply and distribution of vaccines. South Africa received one million doses from India in February with an expiry date of 13 April. South Africa also stopped giving A-Z jabs following blood clot reports. In some cases, to avoid wasting doses, vaccines have been passed on to other countries. J.H.U. figures for the continent show a total of 6,747,072 confirmed COVID cases of which most (2,456,184) are in South Africa and a total of 171,053 confirmed COVID deaths. The most deaths were recorded in South Africa (72,191), Tunisia (20,067) and Egypt (16,528). NaijaNews, Lagos on 24 July reported that Nigeria’s Minister of Health said that Nigeria had stopped vaccination on July 8 due to lack of vaccines but it had restarted after China donated 470,000 Sinovac doses. In the next few days, the US Government will be sending 5.6 million Pfizer doses to South Africa and 4 million Moderna doses to Nigeria.
  
  
  Big Brother Naija Housemate, Tokunbo Idowu (Tboss), 37, has expressed regret whilst sharing her Covid-19 vaccine experience on Instagram at the end of July.  Soooo I FINALLY decided to go get the COVID-19 vaccine shot. I have been so scared & almost paranoid cos of all the conspiracy theories out there but as it is- for someone who loves to travel I didn’t want to get restricted and so I woke up and asked mama to take me. Boom- thoughts of what if this was me accepting the mark of the devil filled my head & I spoke to a couple of friends and they said- Nahhh🤨🤪 & talked me outta that silly thought. Next thing my daughter wakes up & begins throwing tantrums & wouldn’t let me go anywhere without her. Was this a sign for me not to go get the shot🤔?
  We were already running late so I just threw a dress on her & out the door we went. Got to the center and took the shot. Ps: that tiny needle hurt like heck. I felt dizzy & faint & the headache wasn’t of this world. Slept like a log when we got home & woke up in severe pains. My arm felt heavy and I could barely move it. Mama turns on the tv to watch the news & the latest was that many restaurants & shops were gonna start restricting people if they hadn’t gotten the shot. Chimo no be the mark of the devil be this one so? I started crying.
  Regretting my decision. I felt like I should cut off my arm, drain out my blood. I started praying because I Love Jesus too much and anything otherwise is Not & would never be for me. The pain & headaches made it even worse. Bottom line- Na God go sha help us. As a responsible citizen I have done my part. God take control cos to make Heaven is the Grand Plan.
  At the G7 summit conference, the UK pledged to supply 30 million doses of Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine to poorer countries this year and a further 70 million next year. Of the total, 80 million will be distributed via Covax, 20 million direct to other countries. The first batch of 9 million is leaving this week, 5 million via Covax and 4 million direct including 600,000 to Indonesia, 300,000 to Jamaica and 817,000 to Kenya and to Cambodia, Guyana, Laos, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.
  The Ledbury Reporter says that the NHS COVID-19 app is being updated in response to the ‘pingdemic’. A record 689,313 alerts were sent to users of the app in England and Wales in the week to July 21. The DHSC Department for Health and Social Care  has said that the update will see fewer people who have been in close contact to people infected with the virus being told to self-isolate. The algorithm is being adjusted so that a person will need to have been near a positive but asymptomatic individual two days prior, instead of five. This change does not mean that the sensitivity has been altered, nor the risk threshold, the DHSC says.
• 4th August South America. Data by Statista.
  Prof Wei Shen Lim from JCVI confirms a change in the UK guidance after a review by the vaccine body. It will allow the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine to be given to all healthy 16 and 17-year-olds. Children over 12 are only eligible if they have certain health conditions or live with an immunocompromised person.
• 5th August Google tracks mobile phones where the owner has a Google Account and the Location History is turned on. It issues COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports and Data Orchard, a not-for-profit registered Community Interest Company and Social Enterprise company, draws this chart up from the data. Data Orchard is based in Ross-on-Wye, Herefordshire.
  
  The latest UK travel restrictions. Changes like India moving to Amber and Mexico moving to Red apply from 04:00 BST 8 August.
  
  SomersetLive reports: A mother-of-three from Milton Keynes has died of Covid after she kept putting off getting the vaccine. Danni Coombs, 25, was nervous and was ‘too busy’ bringing up her family to get the jab. She died in hospital days before her 26th birthday, after she is believed to have caught coronavirus from her fiance Adam. She leaves behind a son, aged two, who has autism and ADHD, and two little girls, aged four and seven. Adam, an electrician, is now giving up his work to care for the children. Her devastated family have told how Danni “kept putting off” getting vaccinated because she was “busy with other things.” Danni became seriously ill with coronavirus after her oxygen levels plummeted and she was put on a ventilator. She contracted sepsis while in Milton Keynes Hospital and died on July 15. Her aunt, Kelly Coombs, is crowd fundraising to support Adam and the children during this difficult period.
• 7th August The consensus from internet sources is that the estimated world population mid-2021 is around 7,900,000,000 or 7.9 billion people. This means that according to the J.H.U. Johns Hopkins University, Maryland, USA  Dashboard confirmed cases (202 million) are around 2.6% and confirmed deaths (4.4 million) 0.055% of the population.
• 8th August Dr Sarah Gilbert, DBE, of the Oxford Jenner Institute has been honoured by being chosen as model for a Barbie Doll. She is part of Barbie’s new collection, released on 4 August, of “medical role model” dolls highlighting healthcare workers.
  
• 9th August Most of Scotland’s COVID-19 legal restrictions ended at midnight last night. The rules around self-isolation changed, meaning that fully-vaccinated adults who are identified as a close contact of a positive case will no longer have to isolate if they return a negative PCR test. The use of face coverings in enclosed spaces like shops, hospitality venues and public transport will remain “for some time” to come, and venues will still be expected to collect customer details for contact tracing. The wearing of face coverings in some public spaces will continue and they will be required in secondary schools.
  The Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games ended yesterday. Reuters News Agency reports that with no spectators and strict COVID precautions in the Olympic ‘bubble’ the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases since 1 July is 458. Most were Japanese residents. There were 249 contractors, 115 officials, 29 athletes, 27 volunteers, 26 members of the media and 12 staff members. In the city outside, infection rates are high and the lambda variant has been detected.
• 10th August Europe. Data by Our World in Data.
  
• 11th August Progress of adult vaccinations in the United States. Various commentators have pointed out the interesting comparison with the political map of the US. A third map gives the state legislature rules on allowing parents to refuse permission for their schoolkids to be immunised.
  The US NCSL National Conference of State Legislatures  says that all school immunization laws grant exemptions to children for medical reasons. However, there are 44 states and Washington D.C. that grant religious exemptions for people who have religious objections to immunizations. And currently, 15 states go further and allow philosophical exemptions for children whose parents object to immunizations because of personal, moral or other beliefs. Immunizations routinely offered to US parents for their children are Hepatitis B, MMR (Measles, Mumps and Rubella), Meningitis and Polio vaccines.
  There is a possibility that parents who are loath to have their children immunised may also be reluctant to accept a COVID jab themselves.
• 12th August The COVID-19 Schools Infection Survey (SIS) has been taking place in 150 schools across 15 local authorities in England during the 2020/21 school year. The study is run jointly by PHE, LSHTM London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine  and the ONS to investigate the role of schools in the spread of COVID-19 and how transmission within and from schools could be minimised. Dr Shamez Ladhani, consultant paediatrician at PHE and study lead, said: The latest results show that infection and antibody positivity rates of children in school did not exceed those of the community. This is reassuring and confirms that schools are not hubs of infection. Keeping community infection rates low remains critical for keeping children safe and schools open safely. The study also showed high uptake of vaccines among teachers and other school staff. By the end of June 93% had received one dose and more than 70% both doses, both figures higher than those for the whole adult population.
  The i newspaper reports that the CAER Centre for Appled Education Research  is researching the use of high-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters and UV air purifiers in schools. Thirty primary schools are in the study which is led by Professor Mark Mon-Williams of the University of Leeds. The Philips air purifier to be used retails at £450. Headteachers say they will need Government funding to buy the kit.
  
  In Ledbury, the Ice Bytes cafe has already purchased two air purifiers with HEPA filters to protect its customers and staff.
• 13th August The i newspaper reports that three million doses of Oxford-AZ vaccine donated by the UK through the COVAX network are arriving in 11 countries today - Zambia, DR Congo, Angola, Egypt, Ethipia, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, Senegal and Uganda. Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab says No-one is safe until everybody is safe.
• 14th August Asia. Data by Statista. Right click to view the map full-size or
  
• 16th August Background: The Taliban have taken control of Afghanistan on the withdrawal of American and British troops in order to set up once again an Afghanistan Islamic Emirate. The Taliban are Pashtun, the largest ethnic group of the population of Afghanistan and their homeland is the area between the Hindu Kush and the northern stretch of the Indus River in Pakistan also extending into the Khorasan Province of Iran. There are about 60 tribes and most are farmers and herders. Their religion is fundamentalist Sunni Muslim and their movement is called Deobandi after an Islamic seminary in the Indian town of Deoband in Uttar Pradesh where it began. They are supported by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Most of their recent income has come from taxing the opium poppy producers, mainly in Helmand province, and drug production laboratories but, in areas they control, they tax businesses including mining sites.
  
  WHO mobile health teams are on hold in the capital due to the insecurity and the unpredictable situation and COVID testing is likely to have dwindled even more over the last few weeks amid the Taliban’s advance on major cities. Vaccinations began at the end of April after Afghanistan received 500,000 doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine from India but there is limited access to medical facilities in the country generally. An Indian website, FreshersLive, notes that in the public health sector, Taliban members have met a group of female doctors in Kabul asking them to continue their jobs as normal and a number of women gathered in Kabul demanding a share in the upcoming government. Up to the present around 150,000 COVID cases have been recorded in Afghanistan and 7,000 deaths.
  There is a rider to this note. It is said that Deobandi-trained Imams control up to a third of British mosques and most Muslim Prison chaplaincies.
• 18th August In Ledbury this morning a new COVID Rapid Test was being handed out. It differs from the previous test I was given as it is a nasal swab only and avoids the gagging with using back-of-the-throat swabs. Again there are seven tests in a box. It is made in China by ACON Biotech (Hangzhou) Co. Ltd. and distributed by Medimap Ltd., Thurston, Suffolk via MedNet GmbH, Muenster, Germany. The NHS does warn that the test result may be less accurate than a nose and tonsil swab.
  
  
  The instructions say to report the result to the NHS either using the QR code on the tester or going online and entering the code printed below it. [Ed. Drops of the test sample are put into the specimen well, S. After a time a line appearing at C, the Control Zone, only means a negative result; Lines at C & T mean a positive result; a line at T only means the test is invalid]
  The Guardian newspaper reports that New Zealand went into lockdown yesterday after one case of coronavirus was detected in Auckland. The man had only travelled within the island so it seems likely that the virus has taken hold already and may prove to be the Delta variant. About 22% of New Zealanders are now fully vaccinated but masks are not compulsory and one recent case was found in a carefully-controlled quarantine hotel.
  
  
  In the US the HSS U.S. Department of Health and Human Services  announces a plan to begin offering COVID-19 vaccine booster shots. Subject to FDA conducting an independent evaluation and determination of the safety and effectiveness of a third dose of the Pfizer and Moderna mRNA vaccines and CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) issuing booster dose recommendations based on a thorough review of the evidence, we are prepared to offer booster shots for all Americans beginning the week of September 20 and starting 8 months after an individual’s second dose. At that time, the individuals who were fully vaccinated earliest in the vaccination rollout, including many health care providers, nursing home residents, and other seniors, will likely be eligible for a booster. We also anticipate booster shots will likely be needed for people who received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. Administration of the J&J vaccine did not begin in the U.S. until March 2021, and we expect more data on J&J in the next few weeks.
• 20th August Courtesy of the Pittsburg Post & Gazette and Steve Kelley.
  
• 23rd August The US FDA gives full approval to the Pfizer-Biontech vaccine, branded as Comirnaty, replacing the earlier Emergency Use Authority.
• 24th August The UK newspaper the Financial Times has been graphing the virus for some time. Here are two of today’s graphs showing the seven days rolling average of new deaths — first as raw numbers, then as per 100k of the population.
  
  An American cartoonist has a chilling take on the situation.
  
  Herefordshire Council has published a COVID Recovery Plan (PDF).
• 25th August The Victoria & Albert Museum in London had an exhibition recently called “All Will Be Well: Children’s Rainbows from Lockdown” Over 100 rainbow artworks crafted by children. It ran from 3 December 2020 to 21 February 2021. Two items stood out for me - the banner brought from a balcony in a town near Milan in Italy where the rainbow image began and 10-year-old Deepu’s Rainbow.
  ‘Andrà tutto bene’ means ‘Everything will be fine’.
  Here Deepu tells the story behind her painting and three other children tell their stories. Courtesy of the V&A and the BBC.
  
• 26th August The Church bells in Ledbury were refurbished last year and four new bells made, two replacements and two brand new. The new bells were cast by Meighs & Westleys of Newcastle-Under-Lyme, the refurbishmant, retuning and rehanging was done by Whites of Appleton and engraving work by Paul Edwards. One of the new bells has been engraved with a dedication to record the pandemic. The words are: WITH COMPASSION FOR THE SUFFERING CAUSED BY THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND TO HONOUR ALL THOSE WHO HAVE SUSTAINED OUR COMMUNITY, 2020.
  All ten bells will rarely be rung as Ledbury only has a small ringing team but 6 and 8-bell peals making use of all the bells will be heard over the town.
• 27th August The i newspaper reports that a Government adviser who has been close to the Government since coronavirus struck 18 months ago, has told the newspaper that Prime Minister Boris Johnson had privately accepted that there would be at least a further 30,000 deaths in the UK over the next year, and that the Prime Minister would “only consider imposing further restrictions if that figure looked like it could rise above 50,000”. The source said: The Prime Minister is minded to implement another lockdown or new restrictions only if the figure of annual deaths looks like it’s going to go above 50,000. That means deaths from Covid of 137 a day, or just under 1,000 a week. However, it won’t be an immediate reaction. A sustained rate of death of around a 1,000 a week for two or three weeks will, though, lead to discussion on restrictions being reimposed. Unfortunately, prime ministers have to weigh up the cost of saving lives to the impact on the economy. No one wants to talk about [it but] that’s how it works.
• Sunday 28th August On BBC Broadcasting House on Radio4 this morning Sir Mark Walport talks about outdoor music festivals and summarises the present position in the UK.
  
• 30th August The mid-2020 estimate for the 16+ population of Herefordshire is 160,558. Vaccination figures to today are: 1st dose 142,456 2nd dose 127,964. To 30th June the figures were 131,044 and 103,047. [ONS population dataset and NHS - COVID-19 Vaccinations - NIMS National Immunisation Management Service  data]
• 31st August
  The Darlington & Stockton Times newspaper reports that the Centre for Process Innovation (CPI) is creating a new training facility at its headquarters in Darlington, County Durham, UK. The new RNA Centre of Excellence and Training Academy will be led by a partnership between CPI and the National Horizons Centre and based in Darlington’s Central Park development which is part of Teesside University. From early next year it will offer courses in the development and manufacture of RNA, the technology used in the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines. As well as coronavirus, such technology can be used in the treatment of HIV, cancer and heart disease, scientists at the centre have said. Dr Lucy Foley, director of Biologics at CPI says Having established itself as a breakthrough technology during the Covid-19 pandemic, we need to be prepared with the skills and facilities to support this emerging RNA industry.
  
  The CPI also manages the National Biologics Manufacturing Centre in Darlington Central Park. The centre is funded by the Department for Business Innovation and Skills (BIS) A group of independent industry advisors chose the location for the Centre based on accessibility in the form of excellent transport links, particularly the East Coast Mainline, close proximity to existing pharmaceutical companies and relevant universities in the north of England in addition to growth opportunities within the Tees Valley Enterprise Zone.
• Wednesday 1st September Schools in England, Wales and Northern Ireland open today after the summer break. The Government has said it will issue carbon dioxide monitors to schools to check the adequacy of ventilation in enclosed classrooms and staffrooms. All sixteen and seventeen-year-olds are currently being offered coronavirus vaccinations. Government Guidelines are for pupils to self-test at home twice a week, grouping classes into “bubbles” for isolation purposes is not now required but, if any child tests positive they must self-isolate, then all close contacts must be tested. Masks in class are not required and schools won’t be expected to trace contacts although the NHS Test and Trace Programme continues to apply out of school.
  Ashford and St. Peter’s NHS Foundation Trust (in Middlesex and Surrey, south-east England) announces that in September they are presenting 5000 NHS colleagues, temporary workers and volunteers with the COVID Star People’s Medal [see 25 April 2021] to thank and honour them for their ongoing work in responding to the COVID pandemic.
• 3rd September
  
• 4-5th September This weekend the Large Model Aircraft Show is being held in a field at Much Marcle, near Ledbury. The highlight for my wife and I is a Vulcan bomber owned and flown by Dave Johnson in cloudless skies with no wind, ideal model flying weather. Unfortunately it flies too fast for me to frame it for a good photo.
  
• 6th September Update of 12 July. How confirmed cases of COVID-19 have spread to date. Source: Johns Hopkins University, European Centre for Disease Prevention & Control. Published by BBC News.
  The UK first appeared in the top ten COVID cases list on 26 October 2020. But in 2021 it has risen from 7th position, where it has been from 26 April to 22 June, up to 4th position today.
  Today the UK passes the target of 80% of the population aged 16 and over being fully vaccinated — 43,482,932 out of 54,353,665 people (ONS mid-2020 population estimate).
• 8th September Ballotpedia reports that individual US states are issuing state government legislation and executive orders to prevent proof of vaccination being a requirement for employment, entry into venues or access to services, the details varying between states as usual. For example Utah legislation prohibits state agencies and public universities from requiring people to receive a COVID-19 vaccine or show proof of vaccination.
  However the situation about healthcare workers vaccinations is less clear. Houston Methodist was the first U.S. medical organization to require employees to get vaccinated. Managers had to get their shots by April 15 and other workers had until June 7. Houston Methodist said 99 percent of employees complied with the policy. Two out of approximately 1,200 management employees opted to resign rather than get vaccinated. “We are sorry that they made that choice, but by doing so, they are putting themselves before the safety of our patients, which is not consistent with our culture,” CEO Dr. Marc Boom said.
  This approach is supported by the American Medical Association who said in July   We call for all health care and long-term care employers to require their employees to be vaccinated against COVID-19. We stand with the growing number of experts and institutions that support the requirement for universal vaccination of health workers.
  
  A study published in the US Journal of Community Health in April showed that nearly half of frontline healthcare workers in the U.S. had not received a COVID-19 vaccine with hesitancy factors including young age, female gender, and lower education level. [Ed. possibly meaning without medical knowledge, being influenced by family opinions and a young person relying on social media misinformation]
  
  A co-author of the study is reported on Verywell Health website as saying   We have a misperception that healthcare workers practice better health behaviors and engage in healthier lifestyles. Those who are in patient care, know someone who died, or know infected or hospitalized clients are more likely to take the vaccine as they understand the severity of the disease, have a higher perceived risk of getting infected or perceive greater benefits of the vaccine.
• 9th September The i newspaper reports that the UK Government has this morning announced plans to make COVID-19 and flu vaccinations mandatory for frontline NHS workers. A six-week consultation is launched today over the decision and it will examine the scope of the plan and any potential impact that mandating vaccines might have on staffing and safety. The Government has indicated that it will consider moving health workers away from frontline roles if they refuse to take the vaccine. Of the NHS’s 1.4 million staff, 1.2 million, or 85 per cent, work in a frontline capacity with around 200,000 working in office or admin roles. At present around 8% of the workforce are completely unvaccinated and 88% fully vaccinated.
  Vaccination is already compulsory for staff working in healthcare settings in France and Italy.
• 10th September SKY News shows President Biden’s yesterday’s briefing.
  My message to unvaccinated Americans is this: What more is there to wait for? What more do you need to see? We’ve made vaccinations free, safe, and convenient. The vaccine has FDA approval. Over 200 million Americans have gotten at least one shot. We’ve been patient but our patience is wearing thin. And your refusal has cost all of us.
• 11th September In the county of Herefordshire up to today, 300 people have died of COVID since the pandemic began.
• 12th September On BBC Broadcasting House on Radio4 this morning David Nabarro talks about booster vaccinations and where we go from here in the UK.
  
• 13th September These are the UK Government graphs for cases, hospitalisations and deaths to date from the beginning. Right click to view full-size or
  
  On 3rd September the JCVI  Joint Committee on Vaccinations and Immunisation  issued a report which recommended not giving vaccination to all children from 12 to 15 years-of-age. Vaccinations should only be given to children at risk with such illnesses as congenital heart disease, Type 1 diabetes, epilepsy. sickle cell disease, Down’s syndrome, reduced immune systems due to chemo- or radio-therapy and chronic respiratory conditions. The UK’s four Chief Medical Officers looked at the situation and decided today to recommend offering vaccinations to all children in this age range. They said that the likely impact in reducing disruption to schools meant such a plan could be clinically justified. This evening the vaccines Minister, Nadhim Zahawi, said parental consent will be needed for vaccinations, but children can overrule parents who do not want them to get the jab if deemed “competent”.
• 14th September I came across this free newspaper in Cafe Nero in Malvern.
  
  It is self-published by Darren Nesbit (writing as Darren Smith) in Manchester UK and concentrates on presenting articles putting forward various conspiracy theories. The first issue was September 2020 and it is published monthly. According to The Guardian, it bypasses the controls major tech platforms have introduces to clamp down on coronavirus disinformation but then uses Facebook and Twitter to recruit volunteers to spread its agenda. The Light’s distribution relies on a 8,000-strong private Facebook group where volunteers offer to hand out copies and post them through their neighbours’ doors. It’s basic message is that coronavirus is a hoax and it seems to mention “Nazi” tactics by people in authority quite frequently.
  The Sun Online quotes his father, Ellis Nesbit, saying “He is anti everything, anti-government. He also thinks the world is flat. He seems to think the world is run by a dozen people and it’s all a conspiracy. For somebody who is very bright he’s not the full shilling.”
  BBC News broadcasts Boris Johnson’s briefing this afternoon.
  
• Thursday 16th September The NHS in England officially launches its coronavirus booster campaign today, which will see around 30 million eligible people offered a Pfizer vaccine, or in some cases a half-dose of Moderna. They include frontline NHS and social care staff, anyone aged 50 and over, and those under 50 with health conditions that put them at risk of severe Covid. A person’s booster jab will be timed to be given at least 6 months after their second-dose COVID vaccination. The use of the mRNA-type Pfizer and Moderna vaccines instead of the adenovirus-vector AstraZeneca has been recommended by the JCVI  Joint Committee on Vaccinations and Immunisation . Around half of the UK jabs given are from each of these two types of vaccine.
  The Light newspaper draws attention to the MHRA  Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency ’s Yellow Card scheme which doesn’t seem to be widely advertised. The scheme collects data on adverse drug reactions or ADRs to a medicine, vaccine, herbal or complementary remedy. The data comes from health professionals and members of the public who use the Yellow Card app. A dedicated Coronavirus Yellow Card reporting site was set up in May 2020 and in the case of COVID-19 side effects were reported from patients in hospital both before and after vaccines arrived. [Ed. I am studying the figures so as to provide a summary.]
  Maggie Throup, an MP with a background as a biomedical scientist, has replaced Nadhim Zahawi as the new UK minister for vaccine deployment.
• 17th September The UK Government publishes an online survey of Coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine adverse reactions as reported to the Coronavirus Yellow Card by healthcare professionals and members of the public. This is the latest 125-page document (PDF) for the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine.
  There are 230,000 reports listing 820,000 reactions and 1,075 deaths which occurred shortly after receiving the vaccination.
  The breakdown of the patients conditions at time of of death is: blood disorders 10, cardiac disorders 166, congenital disorders 1, gastrointestinal disorders 14, general disorders 358 (including death 344 [?]), hepatic disorders 8, immune system disorders 4, infections 94 (including pneumonia 26, COVID-19 27, both together 10, sepsis 15), head injury 1, metabolic disorders 3, rhabdomyolysis (muscle damage) 1, cancers 7, nervous system disorders 195 (including cerebral haemorrhage 46, cerbrovascular accident 47, cerebral venous sinus thrombosis 22, epilepsy 1), pregnancy / stillbirths 4, device malfunction causing thrombosis 1, psychiatric disorders 7 (including suicides 6, sleep disorder 1), renal and urinary disorders 5, respiratory disorders 130 (including pulmonary embolism 100, pneumonia-related 7), vascular disorders 66 (including thrombosis 33, d.v.t. deep vein thrombosis  9). The wide variety of conditions appears to indicate no particular link to the jab, and seems to show other illnesses present at the time e.g. heart troubles, lung problems. The rare blood clots associated with the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine don’t seem to show up in the figures except for d.v.t.
  In comparison the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine document gives 113,00 reports listing 320,000 reactions and 526 deaths. The Moderna vaccine document gives 15,000 reports listing 49,000 reactions and 16 deaths.
  Most community mass vaccinations is England use Oxford-AstraZeneca; hospitals with cold-storage facilities available can use Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna.
  The Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine document says the most-reported reactions are:
  Headache 80,000 - Fatigue 49,000 - Nausea 33,000 - Myalgia (muscle pain) 26,000 - Dizzines 25,000 - Arthralgia (joint pain) 22,000 - Pain in extremity 21,000 and Pain unspecified 17,000. No fatalities followed from any of these.
  On 8th September 2021, the UK Government reported 43,708,906 people in the UK were fully vaccinated and 4,635,660 more had received a first jab. This adds up over 92 million jabs being administered with 360,000 side effect reports.
• 18th September Yesterday the UK Transport Secretary, Grant Shapps, announced a simplified system for international travel. The current traffic light system will be replaced by a single red list of countries and territories. From Monday 4 October 4am, eligible fully vaccinated travellers will no longer need to take a pre-departure coronavirus test when travelling to England. And from the end of October, eligible fully vaccinated passengers and those with an approved vaccine from a select group of non-red countries (Australia, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Bahrain, Brunei, Canada, Dominica, Israel, Japan, Kuwait, Malaysia, New Zealand, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea or Taiwan) coming from ‘Rest Of World’ countries will still need a day 2 test but can replace the PCR test with a cheaper Lateral Flow test, reducing the cost of tests on arrival in England. The Government wants to introduce this by the end of October, aiming to have it in place for when people return from half-term breaks. Non-vaccinated travellers will still have to quarantine at home, or in the place they are staying, for 10 days after arrival in UK and take two COVID tests.
  
  The Indian Express reports that Cuba has become the first country in the world to authorise the use of coronavirus vaccines for children as young as two years old. The country will be administering its own domestically-produced Soberana-2 vaccine, which has not at present been recognised by the World Health Organisation (WHO). Earlier this month, Cuba’s Medicines Regulatory Agency announced that it authorised the emergency use of the vaccine for children and adolescents aged 2-18 against COVID-19. Adults are receiving the Abdala vaccine.
  
  The Cuban vaccines are different to those used in the rest of the world. They are conjugate vaccines; the coronavirus spike protein is attached to tetanus toxoid. This will only work if you have already had a tetanus vaccination but this is part of childhood vaccination in Cuba. So the immune system will definitely recognize this, and T cells will be activated. The vaccines are produced by BioFarma, Cuba’s State-run corporation, and completed Phase-3 trials in July.
• 20th September From today vaccinations are being offered to 12 to 15 year-olds. Around three million youngsters eligible across the UK will be offered a single Pfizer jab mainly at school clinics. Parental consent will not be needed if a child is considered competent to make a decision by themselves, but England’s chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty has said for the “great majority of cases, children and their parents come to the same decision”.
• 21st September The Irish Times reports today that one person has been hospitalised in Ireland this year after using ivermectin as a treatment for COVID-19. Ivermectin is a veterinary anti-parasite and worming medicine. It won the Nobel Prize for medicine in 2015 for the discovery of its efficacy in treating certain parasitic infections in humans. But evidence that the medicine works to treat COVID-19 is scant, and products bought online are “likely to be illegal or falsified (fake) and could be harmful” to people’s health, a spokeswoman for the HPRA Health Products Regulatory Authority   said. She urged members of the public not to buy products online which claim to cure or prevent COVID-19, including ivermectin. The European Medicines Agency (EMA) has reviewed available evidence on the use of the drug for the prevention and treatment of COVID-19 and concluded that the available data does not support its use for COVID-19 outside well-designed clinical trials. In the UK the drug is used on small animals and horses.
  
• 22nd September Once again llamas are in the news. (see 7 June 2020)
  A research paper published today by the Rosalind Franklin Institute in Didcot, Oxfordshire on the website journal ‘Nature Communication’ says that tests on antibodies found in llamas and camels called nanobodies can effectively target the Sars-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19. The RFI has filed a patent for four nanobodies in the names of three of the researchers, JianDong Huo, R.J.Owens and J.H.Naismith. The nanobodies are so small they can be given as nasal sprays. This may provide an easier alternative to injecting human antibodies taken from recovered COVID-19 patients which has been used for serious cases during the pandemic. Right click to view full-size or
  
  The Daily Telegraph and The Sun Online newspapers gives more information on the possibility that the coronavirus might have originated at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The financial documents were released by US Right to Know, similar to UK Freedom of Information requests. The background is that a US organisation, the EcoHealth Alliance, run by Dr. Peter Daszak has received $123 million from the US Government from 2017 on to give out in grants for various lines of research. The Pentagon (Department of Defense) gave $39 million and the US Agency for International Development $65 million.
  In 2018 he was working closely with the Wuhan Institute on a project to create genetically enhanced viruses to infect humans more easily. The EcoHealth Alliance and the WIV asked for $14 million from the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency to fund the work over three years. One of the key reasons for the research was to protect US military personnel who might be deployed to China and the wider region of Asia. “Security concerns across Asia make the region a potential deployment site for US warfighters,” the grant proposal said. The application was refused as the Agency considered it high risk to local communities. The researchers had planned to release airborne skin-penetrating nanoparticles containing “novel chimeric spike proteins” of bat cornavirus into cave bats in Yunnan in order to innoculate the bats against diseases that could jump to humans.
  
  Dr Daszak has been accused of organising a campaign to ensure the blame for COVID-19 did not fall on the Wuhan labs. He organised a letter to the UK Medical Journal, the Lancet, on March 7th 2020 which was influential in turning attention away from the WIV. Later he was chosen as the only US member of the 13-member WHO investigation team that reported in February 2021 that they found no evidence of the lab being the source. The report also said “The Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention laboratory moved on 2nd December 2019 to a new location near the Huanan market. Such moves can be disruptive for the operations of any laboratory,”
  The Daily Telegraph also notes that the UK Wellcome Trust has also previously funded research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
  
  The Mirror online reports that Professor Dame Sarah Gilbert told a Royal Society of Medicine webinar today that viruses tend to become weaker as they spread around. She said:  We normally see that viruses become less virulent as they circulate more easily and there is no reason to think we will have a more virulent version of Sars-CoV-2. There aren’t very many places for the virus to go to have something that will evade immunity but still be a really infectious virus. We tend to see slow genetic drift of the virus and there will be gradual immunity developing in the population as there is to all the other seasonal coronaviruses. Dame Sarah was also asked which of her titles she is most proud of, and said: ‘Professor, definitely.’
• 23rd September On 8th July 2021 (see above) Professor Phil Spector at King’s College, London reported on the changed symptoms associated with the Delta variant. He has told the i newspaper that he believes the Government’s reluctance to upodate the guidance is over fears that the PCR testing system would be overwhelmed. At present parents can obtain free PCR tests for their children if they suspect they have the virus judged by the original symptom list. If the test proves positive they can keep the children off school until they are recovered and help limit spread of the virus. At their meeting on 18th June, the scientists on NERVTAG New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group  recommended that the Governemnt review its messaging moving into the autumn.
• 25th September The spread of the virus shown by the rolling rate per 100,000 people in the administrative areas of the UK updated from 12 July.
  
• 26th September Using the ONS Dataset ‘Deaths registered in England and Wales’ which actually includes a table for the whole of the UK, deaths from COVID-19 in 2020 were 89,242 divided by age (where known) as follows:
  

  Under 1 year	3
  01 - 14	7
  15 - 44	846
  45 - 64	8,118
  65 - 74	13,476
  75 - 84	29,295
  85 +	37,497

• 27th September The UKHSA UK Health Security Agency  has said hospital patients can be cared for 1 metre rather than 2 metres apart in healthcare facilities inaccordance with WHO advice. Patients will no longer need a negative PCR test and three days self-isolation before going into hospital for treatments not related to COVID-19. And hospitals can return to standard cleaning procedures. The Agency hopes to ease pressure on NHS capacity over the next few months.
• 28th September Our World in Data summarises world progress on vaccinations to date. Right click to view full-size or
  
  
  
• 29th September African Arguments website, published by the Royal Africa Society based at London University, School of Oriental and African Studies, shows this summary map:
  
  The ‘furlough’ payments scheme supporting workers off work due to COVID (see Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme, 20 March and 31 October, 2020 and 3 March, 2021) ends today. The scheme has cost the taxpayer around £70 biliion. Some 12 million people were furloughed during the 18-month scheme, with about one million workers still supported up until its end. It is reported that firms may be able to keep employees on as the economy shows signs of recovery and they may not want to risk losing skilled labour just now. Job vacancies advertised in the UK today are around 1.9 million and the unemployment rate stands at 4.6 percent.
• Friday 1st October From today VAT  Value-Added Tax   for the hospitality ansd leisure industries is increased. The tax was reduced from the standard 20% to 5% on 8 July 2020 in order to help the sector which covers pubs and restaurants, holiday accommodation, attractions and events. Today it increases to an intermediate 12.5% and it will go back to full 20% on 1 April 2022.
  The Hereford Times online publishes a table of COVID-19 cases by age group. As a graph it looks like this.
  
  
• 2nd October
  The i newspaper reports that US pharmaceuticals firm Merck and partner Ridgeback Biotherapeutics are trialling a new anti-COVID drug called molnupiravir. It would be administered as a pill taken twice a day for five days. Early tests on patients with mild-to-moderate COVID have been promising and the company will be applying for approval from the US FDA. The FDA earlier approved remdesivir in May 2020 but a key point is whether the new oral anti-viral drug will be affordable. General opinion in the media is around $700 (£500) for a course of treatment. Pfizer and Roche are working along similar lines.
• 4th October Today the red / amber / green rules for travel to countries is replaced by Red and Green Lists. This is the list of countries on the UK Government Red List. The Rest of the World (ROW) is on the Green List.
  
  Afghanistan
  Angola
  Argentina
  Bolivia
  Botswana
  Brazil
  Burundi
  Cape Verde
  Chile
  Colombia
  Congo (Democratic Republic)
  Costa Rica
  Cuba
  Dominican Republic
  Ecuador
  Eritrea
  Eswatini
  Ethiopia
  French Guiana
  Georgia
  Guyana
  Haiti
  Indonesia
  Lesotho
  Malawi
  Mayotte
  Mexico

  Mongolia
  Montenegro
  Mozambique
  Myanmar
  Namibia
  Nepal
  Panama
  Paraguay
  Peru
  Philippines
  Réunion
  Rwanda
  Seychelles
  Sierra Leone
  Somalia
  South Africa
  Sudan
  Suriname
  Tanzania
  Thailand
  Trinidad and Tobago
  Tunisia
  Uganda
  Uruguay
  Venezuela
  Zambia
  Zimbabwe
  
  People are advised not to travel to red list countries or territories. Coming to UK from a red-list country, you will only be allowed to enter the UK if you are a British or Irish national or you have residence rights in the UK. Then you must take a pre-departure COVID-19 test and, on arrival, quarantine in a managed hotel for 10 days taking two further COVID-19 tests.
  Returning from an ROW (Green List) country, fully vaccinated travellers won’t need a pre-departure test before arrival into England. From later in October, the requirement for a day-2 COVID-19 PCR test will also be dropped, and travellers will be able to use an authorised lateral flow test instead. Unvaccinated travellers coming from an ROW country will need to take a COVID-19 pre-departure test, followed by day-2 and day-8 tests, and to quarantine at home. ‘Test to release’ on day-5 remains an option to reduce the self-isolation period.
  
  The i newspaper reports that a 15-year-old girl, Jorja Halliday, from Portsmouth, died at the Queen Alexandra Hospital on 28 September, just four days after she tested positive for the virus and on the day she was booked for a vaccination. Preliminary results from the hospital’s medical examiner indicated Jorja had Covid myocarditis, heart inflammation caused by the virus.
• 6th October Mandatory vaccination for front line healthcare workers is being discussed wordwide. There is a risk of losing qualified nursing and care staff who refuse to be vaccinated as has happened in the US. On 1 October, the Nursing Times reported that in the UK there is now an exemption procedure where care staff can fill in an application form, which is then clinically reviewed, and their exemption confirmed or otherwise. The end date for the process is 23 December 2021 at which point healthcare workers must be vaccinated or hold a valid exemption letter.
  The UK Academy of Medical Royal Colleges (representing 23 colleges) says it does not believe manditory vaccine is “sensible or necessary”.
  NHS England has reported that more than 92% of NHS staff (1,326,000) have had a single vaccine dose while over 89% (1,277,000) have had a second jab but 8% have not had any jab at all. Lowest uptake is in London where only 82% are fully jabbed.
  In terms of vaccinations prior to the coronavirus pandemic, the i newspaper says that NHS trusts typically state in their policies that all staff who have patient contact are required to undergo screening and immunisation including Tuberculosis, Hepatitis B, Varicella (chicken pox) and MMR (measles, mumps and rubella). The DoH also recommends staff have the influenza jab annually.
• 7th October The UK Government announces that the number of Red List countries will be cut from 54 to 7 at 4am on 11 October. The seven are:
  
     Columbia    Dominican Republic    Ecuador    Haiti    Panama     Peru    Venezuela
  
  For RoW countries vaccination status will be accepted with an NHS COVID Pass, an EU Digital COVID certificate, a US CDC COVID-19 Record Card or a national vaccine certificate from the country of origin. The only provisos are that proof of vaccination must be in English, French or Spanish and that the vaccine must be on the UK Government approved list. This means vaccines from Oxford/AstraZeneca, Pfizer/BioNTech, Moderna, Janssen and branded formulations of these such as AZ 'Covishield' and 'Vaxzevria', Moderna 'Takeda' and 'Spikevax' and Pfizer/B 'Comirnaty'.
• 9th October
  My wife and I received our flu jabs at the GP surgery in Ledbury this morning.
  The surgery reported earlier that flu vaccines deliveries from the supplier, Seqirus, were going to be delayed for one to two weeks. The local pharmacy has also had its delivery of flu vaccines delayed due to ongoing freight issues with a lack of HGV-qualified drivers. This is leaving local supermarket shelves in Ledbury depleted and other delivery delays as container ships are moored outside UK ports waiting to unload imported goods.
• 12th October The House of Commons Science and Technology Committee and Health and Social Care Committee today publish their joint report, ‘Coronavirus: lessons learned to date’, examining the initial UK response to the covid pandemic. The joint inquiry began in October 2020. Here is the Executive Summary and the 150-page Report in full (PDF).
• 18th October The i newspaper reports that a research study by Umea University in Sweden shows that mixing and matching jabs is more effective than having the same vaccine for the booster jab. They say that there is 67% less risk of infection if vaccination with a vector-based vaccine such as AstraZeneca is followed by an mRNA booster such as Pfizer compared with 50% if a vector-based vaccine is used for both. The UK is offering most people a different booster jab to the first two. Also the proportion of teenagers making up COVID cases has risen from around 9,000 a day in September to around 15,000 a day in October. The latest Department of Education figures show 200,000 pupils off school with COVID.
• 20th October Reuters London reports that the UK Government has secured deals for two COVID-19 antivirals, one developed by Merck (see 2 October) and the other by Pfizer, which it said could be used to treat non-hospitalised patients by the end of the year if regulatory approval is granted. The Pfizer drug, PF-07321332, is designed to block the activity of a key enzyme needed for the coronavirus to multiply and will be administered along with a low dose of ritonavir, an older medication widely used in combination treatments for HIV infection. The medication will be given as two pills. The UK has provisionally ordered secured 480,000 courses of Merck’s molnupiravir and 250,000 courses of the PF-07321332/ritonavir subject to approval by the UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency before being used.
• 21st October The Ledbury and Herefordshire cases to date look like this. Right click to view full-size or
  
  
• 23rd October The London Evening Standard quotes a UK Government figure of 5,320,445 third coronavirus vaccine doses (booster jabs) have been given to date. A total of 4,524,517 doses have been delivered in England, 429,801 in Scotland, 322,591 in Wales and 43,536 in Northern Ireland.
• 24th October In comparison with the figures from 20 July [ ], the death rate from COVID-19 in the countries of the UK are:

  	Population	Total Deaths    to date	Deaths per 100,000 people
  England	56,550,138	121,734	215	[200]
  Scotland	5,466,000	9,052	166	[143]
  Wales	3,169,586	6,086	192	[180]
  N.Ireland	1,895,510	2,661	140	[120]
  UK	67,081,234	139,533	208	[192]

  
  Update on world vaccinations since 30 July.
  
  
• 28th October The European Commission accepts the NHS Covid Pass QR code as proof of vaccination.
• 30th October Received my letter this morning saying I am due a COVID-19 booster vaccination and to book it online if I have not been contacted by my local GP practice. Note also the 30 language translations. I booked online for the jab at Elgar House, Hereford.
• 31st October
  From today until 12 November, Glasgow in Scotland is hosting COP26, the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference whose current president is Alok Sharma, the former UK Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. Participants have been issued with a COVID-19 Code of Conduct to ensure everyone’s safety. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, New York, 9 May 1992 has been ratified by 193 countries. World Leaders are attending from around 100 countries. Right click to view full-size or
  
• 1st November From 4am this morning all red list countries have been moved to the green list in England. The Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office will still provide recommendations on travel to countries that experience a spike in covid cases and many countries will have travel restrictions in place.
• 2nd November The Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard shows the total number of deaths from COVID-19 worldwide have exceeded 5 million of which 750,000 are in the US. The total cases worldwide are just short of 250 million.
• Monday 8th November Celebrating the reopening of the United States for international travellers after closure for 600 days, British Airways and Virgin Atlantic A350-1000 jets take off simultaneously from runway’s 27L and 27R at London Heathrow Airport, UK, destination New York JFK, U.S.
  
• 9th November The UK Health Secretary announces vaccines will be compulsory for all NHS and social care workers in England by April 1. The Government estimates that as many as 123,000 healthcare workers could refuse the Covid-19 vaccine despite the fact they face unemployment.
  The Department of Health and Social Care said the regulations will cover health and social care workers who have direct, face-to-face contact with people while providing care, such as doctors, nurses, dentists and domiciliary care workers. Also ancillary staff such as porters or receptionists who may have social contact with patients but are not directly involved in their care. Only those who do not have face-to-face contact with patients or who are medically exempt will not be required to have two doses of a Covid jab.
• 10th November In the US, the AARP  American Association of Retired Persons   says the rate of fully vaccinated nursing home staff climbed significantly following the adoption of more vaccine mandates. Right click to view full-size or
  
  Today 10 US States are suing the federal government to try to block a COVID-19 vaccine requirement for all health-care workers scheduled to take effect on January 4. Led by Missouri, the states are Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, New Hampshire, North and South Dakota and Wyoming.
• 11th November From today all care home staff must have had the initial two coronavirus vaccinations. The Herford Times reported two days ago that NHS England figures published on October 24 showed 197 of 2,333 people working in older adult care homes in Herefordshire were yet to receive two doses of the Covid-19 vaccine. Herefordshire Council said that not all of those 197 people were actually currently working – some could be on maternity or on long-term sick leave. Channel 4 News reports that in the UK around 30,000 care home staff have declined the Covid vaccine.
• 15th November
  In a UKHSA Press Release this morning the independent JCVI  Joint Committee on Vaccinations and Immunisation  advises that, in addition to those aged over 50 years and those in the COVID-19 at-risk group, all adults aged 40 to 49 years should be offered an mRNA booster, 6 months after their second dose, irrespective of the vaccines given for the first and second doses. The advice comes as the UK Health Security Agency publishes the first data on booster vaccine effectiveness in the UK. The analysis shows that people who take up the offer of a booster vaccine increase their protection against symptomatic COVID-19 infection to over 90%. Protection against more severe disease is expected to be even higher.
  The JCVI also says that all 16 to 17 year olds who are not in an at-risk group should be offered a second dose of the Pfizer vaccine. Professor Wei Shen Lim, Chair, COVID-19 immunisation, JCVI said:  Booster vaccine doses in more vulnerable adults, and second vaccine doses in 16 to 17 year-olds are important ways to increase our protection against COVID-19 infection and severe disease. These vaccinations will also help extend our protection into 2022.
  
  A second US lawsuit against the federal government was filed by Louisiana and 11 other states. These were Alabama, Arizona, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Mississippi, Montana, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Utah and West Virginia. So now a total of 22 states (shown above) are pursuing legal action.
  Previously on November 4, the federal OSHA Occupational Safety and Health Administration  handed down a new mandate that every company with 100 or more employees must require everyone to be vaccinated by January 4. Then within eight hours, 26 states sued on this rule, most of the ones that are now opposing the healthcare workers mandate (mainly Republican States who choose to bring politics into healthcare decisions).
  The US Governnment believes these policies on workers and healthcare staff are necessary to slow down the pandemic and will withstand legal challenges. Lawrence Gostin, a professor at Georgetown University Law Center and director of the World Health Organization’s center on health law, said the half-century-old law that created OSHA gives it the power to set minimum workplace safety measures.
• 16th November
  An update to 28th September chart. Right click to view full-size or The UK has not improved its world ranking.
• Wednesday 17th November I had my coronavirus booster Pfizer Vaccination this afternoon at the Ledbury Community Centre.
  
  One reason for delays in giving people the booster jab seems to be poor organisation. When I booked online last week I was offered Cheltenham or Craven Arms, both a good 45 minutes drive away. Then, after a casual enquiry at my local NHS G.P. surgery yesterday I was told Ledbury had been sent two days worth of vaccine for Wednesday and Friday book-in sessions. Some people had been sent texts but no-one had contacted me. The vaccination itself was prompt and well-organised with four vaccination queues working.
  This Comirnaty (Pfizer) package leaflet (PDF) was given to me after the booster vaccination. There are some interesting points here. The AstraZeneca package leaflet is included on 13 March above.
  
• 18th November The list of UK NHS healthcare workers who must be fully vaccinated includes:

          Doctors
          Nurses
          Dentists
          Domiciliary care workers providing in-person care at their homes
          Porters
          Receptionists
          Caretakers

  The number of COVID-19 Vaccinations of NHS Trust Health Care Workers in the NHS Electronic Staff Record for England shows that on October 31 there was a total staff of 1,438,800 of which 1,328,796 have had the first dose and 1,280,757 have had both doses. The most successful Health Trust is Derbyshire which has 94.9% of staff fully vaccinated, the lowest is Birmingham and Solihull Mental Health Trust which has only 79.4% fully vaccinated. Herefordshire (Wye Valley Trust) with a total staff of 4,139 scores a respectable 91.5% first dose and 88.4% fully vaccinated.
• 19th November An ‘Our World in Data’ graph shows the situation in Europe through 2021.
  
  The Netherlands, Belgium and Austria are all planning full or partial lockdowns. Many Austrians are sceptical about vaccines, a view encouraged by the far-right Freedom party, the third biggest in parliament. However the Austrian Chancellor has announced today that COVID vaccination will become mandatory in Austria from February 1, 2022. In Germany, Munich has become the first major city to cancel its world-famous Christmas market. The Chancellor Angela Merkel and the leaders of Germany’s 16 states agreed yesterday to shut the unvaccinated out of restaurants and sporting and cultural events.
• 20th November
  Newsweek reports that last night there were protests in Rotterdam, Netherlands. Images circulating across Twitter showed what appeared to be hundreds of people congregating in the streets of Rotterdam in protest of what users said to be the country’s COVID-19 restrictions against the Latest COVID restrictions. The Guardian online reports that cars were torched, rocks were thrown and the police responded with warning shots and water cannon. Two people with serious injuries are being treated in hospital in Rotterdam today.
• 22nd November From today COVID booster jabs are being offered to people aged 40 to 49 and second vaccine doses to 16 to 18 year-olds. Parents were able to book COVID-19 vaccinations online for their 12-15 year old children from October 23 and 43% have had the jab so far in Herefordshire.
  The Government has had an advertising campaign this winter to encourage vaccine take-up.
• 25th November The i newspaper reports that a new variant of concern has been reported in South Africa. The B.1.1.529 or Omicron variant has twice the number of mutations of the spike protein as the Delta variant and US experts believe it can reduce the effectiveness of vaccines to as low as 30%.
  UK Health Secretary Sajid Javid announces today that South Africa, Botswana, Namibia, Zimbabwe, Lesotho and Eswatini are added to the Red List of countries with hotel quarantining and PCR tests required for arrivals from these countries. Flights from South Africa have been temporarily stopped. The variant is believed to have reached Botswana, Hong Kong and one case in Belgium.
• Saturday 27th November UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson holds a press briefing at 5pm on BBC1.
  
  Professor Chris Whitty and Sir Patrick Vallance added further points at the briefing.
  
• 29th November At an afternoon briefing today led by Professor Jonathan Van-Tam, four recommendations from the JCVI  Joint Committee on Vaccinations and Immunisation  were given. These are in the light of the arrival of the Omicron variant in Europe.
      1. All 18 to 39 year-old people should be offered the booster jab.
      2. Immuno-suppressed individuals who have had three primary doses should be offered a fourth booster jab.
      3. All 12 to 15 year-olds to be offered a second dose 12 weeks after the first dose.
      4. The gap between the second dose and the booster dose to be reduced from 6 months to 3 months to allow more people to get the booster jab before the Omicron variant takes hold in the country.
  Soon after, Sajid Javid in a statement to the House of Commons says that there are now 5 confirmed Omicron case in England and six in Scotland. The Red List rules now covering 10 African countries, will come into force from 4 a.m. tomorrow morning. At the same time two other general rules apply in England. Anyone testing positive for COVID must isolate at home for at least 10 days until they test COVID-free and face coverings must be worn in retail outlets and on public transport and children in secondary schools in certain situations. He also said that the JCVI recommendations would be implemented as soon as possible.
  In the US, ABC news reports on the travel restrictions in place today.
  
  
• 30th November Local radio station BBC Hereford & Worcester had a reporter in Ledbury first thing this morning talking to locals.
  
  
  They also interviewed a local expert, Dr. Sylvana McCaffrey, to find out about vaccination delays in Herefordshire. There is still confusion reported in the daily newspapers today.
  
• 1st December An update of the October 1 graph of COVID-19 cases by age group in Herefordshire.
  
  
• 2nd December The i newspaper reports that the Vaccines Taskforce, which works directly with pharmaceutical companies, has ordered 54 million vaccine doses from Pfizer and 60 million from Moderna to be delivered in 2022/23. If variant-adapted jabs are produced by either company, Britain will have priority access to them. This indicates a move towards using mRNA technology in future.
• 3rd December Omicron variant total cases reported up to today are: England - 104, Scotland - 29, Wales - 1, NI - 0.
  Use of the NHS contact-tracing app has fallen since the summer ‘pingdemic’ reducing by around 55%. A YouGov survey in September showed that of 2000 people surveyed 38 had deleted the app from their smartphones and 58 had never downloaded the app in the first place. The UKHSA is encouraging people to use the app so that Test and Trace can help slow down the spread of the Omicron variant.
• Sunday 5th December From next Tuesday all people entering the UK, whether or not they have been vaccinated, will be required to take a PCR COVID test 48 hours before they are due to come.
  On BBC Broadcasting House this morning Professor Anthony Harnden, Deputy Chair of the JCVI, summarises the pandemic so far and decisions made.
  
• 6th December Nigeria has been added to the UK Red List of countries from today.
  Kate Nicholls, CEO of the trade body UK Hospitality, is reported in the i newspaper as saying that normally 40% of hospitality profits come in the ‘golden quarter’ between Halloween and New Year’s Eve. This year the industry is short around 170,000 permanent staff and up to 15,000 seasonal workers. She says this has been caused by furloughed foreign workers returning home and others moving to different jobs during the pandemic. The industry needs to rebuild from the losses made during lockdowns.
• Wednesday 8th December At a press conference this afternoon the UK Prime Minister announces new COVID restrictions (he has called this ‘Plan B’) following the rapid spread of the Omicron variant in the UK. (6½ mins)
  England’s chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, explains the latest information on the omicron variant. (3½ mins)
  
• 12th December On the recommendation of the UKHSA, NHS Chiefs and the four Chief Medical Officers of the devolved UK nations, the Prime Minister announces this evening that the UK COVID alert level has moved up to 4. This is based on the increased transmissibility of the Omicron variant which is expected to overtake UK Delta variant infections this next week. There are also further restrictions, a ‘Plan C’, under consideration.
  
  A sticker has appeared for sale on eBay. Produced by White Rose and sold by kary-mullis-rip.
  
  While QAnon dominates the conspiracy theorist scene in the US, White Rose is the largest grouping in the UK. It was formed in November 2020 and now has a channel on the Telegram messaging app containing tens of thousands of users, with hundreds of posts per day. Their website says “The White Rose UK is a peaceful resistance group based in the UK. It all began shortly around Pentecost in 2020, when we realised that covid-19 was no more dangerous than the flu and that covid restrictions, imposed by our government, were clearly violating our basic human rights.”
  
• 13th December This afternoon the UKHSA UK Health Security Agency  reports on Twitter that total confirmed cases of infections with the Omicron variant are: England - 4,487, Scotland - 186, Wales - 30, NI - 10. (see 3rd December).
  In Ledbury town (population mid-2020 9,894 including all ages) vaccinations 1st dose 8,122 1st & 2nd dose 7,503 people on the vaccination register 9,169.
• 14th December
  Front page headline.
  The Red List of countries with restricted travel has been scrapped as from 4 a.m. this morning.
  The Hereford Times today gives vaccination figures for the county. With a population of 193,000, 1st dose 151,742 / 2nd. dose 141,602 / Bosster dose 79,549.
  Three votes in the House of Commons late this afternoon saw many Conservative M.P.’s voting against the Government proposals put forward by the Health Secretary Sajid Javid. Following a debate, the votes were:
  Face coverings requirement - Ayes 441 Noes 41 - 38 Conservatives voting No
  Covid passes required at venues - Ayes 369 Noes 126 - 98 Conservatives voting No
  Care home staff requiired to be vaccinated - Ayes 385 Noes 100 - 61 Conservatives voting No
• 15th December Latest advert.
  
  Meanwhile queues build up for booster jabs, here outside St Thomas’ Hospital in London.
  
  The i newspaper reports that Isreal has put the UK and Denmark on its Red List of countries over concerns over the spread of Omicron.
  Yesterday the president of the South African Medical Association, Dr Angelique Coetzee, reported to the Commons Science and Technology Committee that the symptoms of the infection caused by the Omicron variant are very different to those of Alpha or Delta (see 8th July). She says that they are
  

  ⬤ Moderate to severely painful headaches

  ⬤ No cough- but a scratchy throat

  ⬤ Body aches and pains - including in the shoulders and arms

  ⬤ Tiredness and fatigue

  ⬤ Runny nose and Sneezing

  ⬤ Night sweats

  ⬤ No loss of taste or smell

  
  There is no word from WHO or the UK Chief Medical Officers noting the change in symptoms.
  Dr. Coetzee also said that the rapid flow test is still showing false negatives in the early period. We do have patients that waited a week and still have a headache and then they do PCR and it’s positive.
  At 4 p.m. today the UK Government figures show a very large jump in reported cases. The number of cases (people who have had at least one positive COVID-19 test result) by date reported was up to 11,010,286 which is an increase of 77,741 over the past 24 hours. This is off the scale of my chart of daily infections (see below).
• 16th December The Manchester Evening News website reports that Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter, who advises the government on the SAGE Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies  committee said it is possible that a million people could be isolating with Covid infections on Christmas Day.
  The New York Times has this map of Omicron cases worldwide. Right click to view full-size or
  
  This ‘tweet’ was posted on Twitter today by a member of the Government, Joy Morrissey, who is Member of Parliament for Beaconsfield and Parliamentary Private Secretary to the Justice Secretary, Dominic Raab. The ‘unelected covid public health person’ is Professor Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, who said last night at a Downing Street press conference that people should limit and prioritise social contact in the coming days amid a growing wave of coronavirus infections. His comments went beyond what Mr Johnson said, with the Prime Minister advising the nation to be cautious over the festive period.
  
  Her tweet was later deleted following widespread criticism including from No. 10 and members of Parliament. But later she again tweeted saying she is ‘increasingly concerned at public health pronouncements made in the media that already seem to exceed or contradict decisions made by our elected representatives’.
  
  UK Parliament Christmas recess begins today until 5 January 2022.
• 17th December This useful BBC graph shows how the tests work. There are two problems with the lateral flow test, it is easy to do it wrong and it is only around 60% accurate.
  
  
• 18th December London Mayor Sadiq Khan declares a Major Incident in the capital today. This allows a closer co-operation between key public response services. A similar declaration was made on Jan 8 but was stood down on Feb 26 as case numbers fell.
  
  
  This was only reported on the BBC this morning but Bloomberg Opinion reported on 7 December on a new antiviral drug from GlaxoSmithKline Plc, working with Vir Biotechnology Inc.. Sotrovimab, trade name Xevudy, is a monoclonal antibody treatment which its research shows to be effective against the full combination of mutations seen in the new variant. With vaccines, you get a polyclonal response — that is, lots of different antibodies. Most monoclonal antibody treatments are used within 10 days of symptoms appearing in patients with a high risk of developing severe disease. They cannot be used once a patient is hospitalized because by that time the disease is much less driven by the virus itself than the overreaction of the immune system.
  The drug has been approved in the U.K. and several other countries as a 500mg/8ml dose given as an intravenous infusion over 30 minutes. It needs to be given at a hospital. One injection is effective in reducing the risk of disease for up to eight months. And GSK recently reported data showing that an intramuscular injection performs just as well. AstraZeneca is also working on a monoclonal antibody, AZD7442.
  There are two settings in which a monoclonal would be the treatment of choice. One is when subjects have weaker immune systems that do not respond well to vaccines and need to be given prolonged protection. The other setting where a longer-acting therapy would be better is preventively, where someone who is immune-compromised has been exposed to the virus but not yet tested positive for Covid.
  African Arguments website, published by the Royal Africa Society based at London University, School of Oriental and African Studies, shows this summary map:
  
  Previously recorded on 28 September.
• Sunday 19th December Cabinet Office minister Steve Barclay chairs a meeting between the UK Government’s emergency committee COBRA Cabinet Office Briefing Room A  and leaders of the devolved nations at 5pm today. Neither Boris Johnson nor Rishi Sunak are attending.
• 20th December This morning wrappers (extra cover page) on all UK newspapers.
  
  
  An answer to the question as to why the Omicron COVID variant is more infectious and apparently less severe than earlier variants come from researchers at the LKS Faculty of Medicine at The University of Hong Kong (HKUMed). They found that Omicron SARS-CoV-2 infects and multiplies 70 times faster than the Delta variant and original SARS-CoV-2 in human bronchus, but that the Omicron infection in the lung is significantly lower than the original SARS-CoV-2. This press release was issued on 15 December.
• 21st December The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak announces more financial help for business (BBC News at One).
  
  UK Government coronavirus figures released at 4pm today had this note: Because of a processing issue, positive lateral flow tests followed by a negative PCR test in England were not removed on 20 Dec 2021. Today’s figures include removals for 2 days.
  On my UK Progress Charts I use totals to date and subtract each day from the day before to get the actual cases each day. The removal of positive lateral-flow tests reported but then cancelled when the follow-up PCR test shows negative has confused the daily case figures for some time now.
• 22nd December BBC Hereford & Worcester radio breakfast programme reports from Ledbury.
  
  By 10am vaccinations were proceeding steadily. Some in an army tent, some in a van borrowed from St.Michael’s Hospice in Hereford.
  
  The rule on quarantine changed today. Anyone testing positive as confirmed with a follow-up PCR test must self-isolate for 7 instead of 10 days. On day 6 and day 7 they must take lateral flow tests and report negative results before they can go back to work. The Government says it is following scientific advice from NERVTAG New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group . This will reduce disruption to transport, health services and hospitalty venues in particular.
• 23rd December At 4pm yesterday UK Government figures showed more than 100,000 confirmed daily cases recorded. This may only be a point on a rising curve of infections but it has an impact on the way people react to the situation. There seem to be more masks being worn on the streets of Ledbury.
  Update of 6 September. How confirmed cases of COVID-19 have spread to date. Source: Johns Hopkins University, European Centre for Disease Prevention & Control. Published by BBC News.
  The spread of the virus shown by the rolling rate per 100,000 people in the administrative areas of the UK updated from 25 September.
  
• 24th December The i newspaper gives a summary of restrictions in the four UK nations.
  ALL - face coverings mandatory in indoor public places and on public transport
  Working from home is advised (mandatory in Wales)
  ENGLAND - Care home residents only three named visitors
  Proof of vaccination to enter nightclubs and events over 10,000 people (unseated indoors 500+ unseated outdoors 4000+)
  SCOTLAND - Hospital patients only 2 visitors, care home residents only two households at a time
  From 26 December attendance at all outdoor events max. 500 people
  Indoor standing events no more than 100 people, indoor seated events max. 200 people
  From 27 December table service only in licensed premises
  WALES - From 26 December maximum 6 people meeting in pubs and restauarants
  Table service only in licensed premises
  Nightclubs must close
  All sport behind closed doors (up to 50 spectators only)
  NI - From 26th December meeting people (indoors up to 30, outdoors up to 50) so theatres, cinemas effectively closed
  Table service only in licensed premises, maximum 6 people or 10 in one household
  Night clubs must close
  UK COVID figures will not be available on certain days over the Christmas and New Year holidays. In England 25/26, in Scotland 25/26/27/28 and 1/2/3/4 January, in Wales 25/26/27, in Northern Ireland 25/26/27/28. [Ed. A not so United Kingdom]
• 25th December There is a apparent discrepancy between the case numbers on my UK progress chart and the figures announced daily on BBC TV News. My figures are calculated from the daily total number of reported cases with cases taken away where a positive lateral flow test has been cancelled out by a negative PCR test. The BBC uses the announced daily total number of reported cases.
  For 23/24 December my case numbers are 122,448 / 121,371 that is a decrease.
  For 23/24 December the BBC report says 119,789 / 122,186 that is an increase.
  The Government dashboard explains this and I will continue using the actual figure of confirmed test results.
• 26th December France reported over 100,000 cases yesterday.
• 27th December
  The i newspaper reports that, since Christmas Eve, more than 8,000 flights have been cancelled in the UK, mainly due to staff shortages caused by Omicron, leaving passengers stranded. British Airways cancelled 18 Christmas Day flights, 59 more on Boxing Day and 45 on Monday. Metro News says US Airlines reporting disruptions include United, JetBlue, American, Alaskan, Delta and Southwest with over 4,000 flights cancelled or delayed on Christmas Day and over 7,300 flights on 26 December. Dr Anthony Fauci has warned of possible vaccination requirements for air travel.
  CBS Miami reports a significant relaxation of COVID recommendations by the US CDC Centers for Disease Control and Prevention . The CDC has reduced the self-isolation time for people with asymptomatic COVID-19 from 10 to 5 days followed by 5 days mask-wearing. The aim is to alleviate disruption caused by staff shortages. However there is no recommendation for people to take a rapid at-home test before returning to work. They also add that if quarantine “is not feasible” it can be skipped as long as people wear a mask for 10 days after exposure. The CDC says most transmissions happen in the two days before and three days after symtoms develop (see 17 December). The quarantine period for unvaccinated people exposed to infection is reduced from 14 to 5 days and people who are fully vaccinated and boosted do not need to quarantine after exposure.
• 28th December The spread of the Omicron variant in the UK is causing a shortage of NHS staff as reported in the Daily Mail online.
  
  Key people in the UK NHS.
  
  Top Row:
  1. Amanda Pritchard, Chief Executive of NHS England
  2. Chris Hopson, Chief Executive of NHS Providers
  3. Professor Dame Clare Gerada, Head of Royal College of GPs
  4. Patricia Marquis, England Director of the the Royal College of Nursing
  Bottom Row:
  5. Matthew Taylor, Chief Executive of the NHS Confederation
  6. Dr Chaand Nagpaul, Chairman of the British Medical Association’s council
  7. Leyla Hannbeck, Chief Executive of the Association of Independent Multiple Pharmacies
  8. Dr Andrew Goddard, President of the Royal College of Physicians
  
  Profesor Jonathan Van-Tam is giving the Royal Institution Christmas Lectures with the first one this evening on BBC1. One of his guests is Dr. Helen Lee who works for a Cambridge University spin-off company, Diagnostics for the Real World (DRW) which has developed a portable coronavirus testing machine. Called Samba Simple amplification-based assay  II it can diagnose COVID-19 from tiny traces of the genetic code in less than 90 minutes. Working by genetic amplification and at room temperature it combines the accuracy of a PCR test with a lot shorter time - 24 hours reduced to less than 90 minutes.
  On April 2 last year this diary recorded that twenty machines were already working at Addenbrooke’s Hospital in Cambridge and in November 2020 the Government issued a favourable Technical Evaluation Report (PDF). Since then no word until Dr. Lee appears on television this evening demonstrating how it works. One of the problems in making this machine more widely available may be the cost. The Guardian newspaper reported in September 2020 that Benenden Private Boarding School in Kent had paid £35,000 plus VAT for a single machine to test their pupils and staff and that test capsules cost £60 each. This is out of reach for most State schools but Benenden School has allowed two local State schools free access to the machine and is subsidising the cost of tests for the schools.
• 30th December ITV News online reports that the NHS is setting up temporary Nightingale surge hubs in the grounds of eight hospitals. They will be manned by a mix of hospital consultants, nurses, and other clinical and non-clinical staff and are designed to are designed to take up to 100 patients each who, although not fit for discharge, need minimal support and monitoring while they recover from illness. Amanda Pritchard (see above) expressed doubts today about the availability of NHS staff to run these new facilities since so many are isolating. The countrywide locations are:
  

      Royal Preston Hospital
      St James’ University Hospital in Leeds
      Lister Hospital in Stevenage
      St George’s Hospital in London
      The William Harvey Hospital in Ashford, Kent
      North Bristol Hospital
      Solihull Hospital, University Hospitals Birmingham
      University Hospitals Leicester

  
  An NHS national deal with Hospice UK will also see up to 4,800 people a day who need ongoing monitoring, but do not need to be in hospital, receive support in either in a hospice bed or through Hospice@Home teams.
• 31st December The number of patients being admitted to hospital each day with COVID-19 is increasing as are the numbers in hospital each day.
  Tonight the refurbished Big Ben clock in the Elizabeth Tower, Houses of Parliament, Westminster, London will chime midnight for the start of the New Year.
  
  

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Barry Sharples, 2021


Further information:


UK PROGRESS CHARTS (JPG)
January to June 21   July to December 21
Vaccinations January to June 2021   July to December 2021

HEREFORDSHIRE PROGRESS CHARTS AND MAP (JPG)
January to June 21   July to December 21
Deaths within Herefordshire, March 2020 to April 2021
Ledbury cases March 2020 to date
Use the browser back button to return to the diary.

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